Start investing with a
free Kristal.AI account.


Simple. Secure.

*Error message

IC Speaks4 Mins Read

2020 and Beyond – Thoughts About Markets and More…

Advisory Letter: 09th January, 2020

Good day from Kristal Advisors!

And a very Happy New Year to you, wherever you are.

New all-time highs for major indices, an airstrike by Trump, environmental devastation in Australia – the very first days of this new year have been filled to the brim with news of global magnitude and repercussions. We are entering the third decade of the new millennium, and 2020 has the potential to become a very special one for various reasons.

I still remember the year 2000, the fears and dreams we had, that by 2020 the world will be a better place as long as not all our computers crash on 01.01.00.

China was at the gates of WTO submission, which marked the beginning of a great globalization move. It resulted in deflationary trends for the following 20 years due to lower goods prices – thanks not only to cheap iPhones from China, but also an aging population in the western hemisphere, as boomers changed their spending habits going into retirement.

After Trump pulled the plug on China Trade in 2018, we are now at the cusp of a total reversal and heading towards de-globalization. Supply chains are changing and giants like Amazon promising ever shorter delivery times to their customers, require a gradual shift of production closer to the consumer. It may sound overly pessimistic writing these lines at the very same moment as reading – what feels like the 135th time – a Trump announcement on Twitter about a trade deal close to being signed. But here we are…

What is also special is the upcoming US presidential election which will shape the fortune of the US financial markets for the foreseeable future. My base case is that Trump will retain the White House for another 4 years, but watch out for outrageous promises for fiscal stimulus from both sides. This should keep markets supported, but be mindful of the tail risk from a democratic victory, which (depending on the candidate) could well turn into a sharp pullback in equities.

I see 2020 as a tale of two sides: I think the market is complacent towards global political headline risk (trade war, populism, civil unrest) and this will keep any recovery L-shaped at best. On the other side, unless we see a significant spike in inflation, it is unlikely that central banks will remove the punch bowl of monetary stimulus, which should keep risk assets underpinned overall. Our outlook is for a continuation of the positive risk sentiment for another few months, but heading into summer 2020, clients should pare back on risk allocations and seek refuge in safe-haven assets or at least buy some insurance to protect their gains.


The 2020 Moonshots

1. Infrastructure

Take a look at US public spending on Transportation and Water infrastructure since 1956 (Source: CBO.gov)

If we adjust these numbers for inflation, the US has been heavily underspending in these sectors over the past 20 years. I also looked at the cyclicality: Usually, major projects like water treatment plants have a lifecycle of around 20 to 30 years. This means that after the past cycle from the mid-’90s has come to an end, another cyclical wave of replacement and upgrades will be necessary. This is also a topic that will find bipartisan support in an election year, and both parties of the aisle will likely outbid each other with infrastructure investments as a form to stimulate the US economy.

2. Water, Food, Cyber, AI

Technological revolution is still very much in the making. I see revolutionary developments in areas like 3D printing, robotics, also stemming from the need to shorten supply chains. Cybercrime is also increasing, forcing consumers and corporations alike to step up investment in this sector.

The Looney-Moonshot Prediction

  • A fiscal and dollar crisis at the end of 2020.
  • The dollar has reached a threshold in terms of debt/GDP ratios (>105%) which make it no longer appealing in its status as a global reserve currency. Trade war has also undermined the willingness of overseas governments to invest in US Treasuries and they start to flee the currency selling their UST holdings.
  • Trump, after winning the 2020 election with an overwhelming margin of 85% is jubilant at first given a lower dollar is all he wanted to narrow trade deficits. Treasury yields rise to 4% and the Department of treasury needs to raise its debt ceiling to just service existing coupon payments and refinancing. But the hardest impact is on the US corporate sector, especially those companies who had leveraged and borrowed to buy back their own shares. Refinancing cost rises dramatically and interest expense as % of net income reaches a level of 300%, surpassing the 2008 peak.

As always, we’re here to help you navigate the market’s moods. 2019 was a good year, despite all its roller-coasters (as you can see below). Here’s to a stable 2020, Presidents willing, for all of us!


The materials and data contained herein are for information only and shall in no event be construed as an offer to purchase or sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities in any jurisdiction. Kristal Advisors does not make any representation, undertaking, warranty or guarantee as to the update, completeness, correctness, reliability or accuracy of the materials and data herein. All opinions, forecasts or estimation expressed herein are subject to change without prior notice. Kristal Advisors and its affiliates accept no liability or responsibility whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss and/or damages arising out of or in relation to any use of opinions, forecasts, materials and data contained herein or otherwise arising in connection therewith.

Post tagged under

2020 Market Outlook

Other stories you might like

Change your country to India?

You’re now visiting Kristal.AI Worldwide.
To explore diverse offerings in Indian and global products, select India as your country.




Hong Kong




Accredited Investor Declaration

This is offered only to Accredited and Institutional Investors as defined under the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“Act”), which broadly comprises of regulated financial Institutions, large corporates, high net worth individuals and sophisticated investors.

An Accredited Investor is an individual
  • Whose net personal assets exceed in value SGD 2 million (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency) with value of his/her primary residence capped at SGD 1 million, or
  • Whose financial assets (net of any related liabilities) exceed in value SGD 1 million (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency), or
  • Whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than SGD 300,000 (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency)

I agree to opt-in as Accredited Investor and will submit required documentation to confirm the same.

< Back Proceed as Private Wealth

Wealth Management Solutions

Enabling clients to invest in trending themes like FAMANGThe FAMANG Kristal invests in Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet’s Google stocks. Assets are carefully chosen by an algorithm in order to deliver a superior returns based on past performance. The strategy is rebalanced every quarter., TECHGlobal Technology ETFs is a genetic algorithmic strategy focussed specifically on the Technology sector., ESGProvides exposure to higher rated environmental, social, and governance (ESG) companies while accessing large- and mid-cap stocks in Europe, Australia, Asia and the Far East., etc. with a single click or just create your own thematic basket.

Future-proof your portfolio and capture emerging investment themes.


Explore and Identify

Select from a range of expertly designed trending and diverse themes

Efficient Execution

Enabling easy exposure to your preferred themes without the hassle and costs of individual security selection and execution

Only the Best

A ready-made collection of Kristals that derive the best of the specific asset class or theme

Unique Mix

An optimised blend of ETFs and individual counters, enhancing efficiency and profitability

Contact our Relationship Manager

Diversify your portfolio with exclusive Private Equity, Pre-IPO deals, VC Funds & other investments like Bitcoin, Gold, Hedge Funds and many more.

Kristal fractionalizes difficult-to-access deals and opportunities.


Instant Access

A wide range of alternative asset classes such as Gold, Bitcoins, Hedge Funds and many more; readily made available

Risk Management

Enables investments in diversified assets hence spreading the risk

Easy Tracking

Enables you to get a consolidated view of investments in all assets at one place, hence facilitating easy monitoring and tracking

Exclusive Deals

Access to exclusive Venture Capitalist, Startup as well as pre-IPO investment opportunities

Low Investment Tickets

Facilitates fractionalization of investments in deals

Contact our Relationship Manager

Professionally managed funds with active investment strategies, screened for you by our investment committee to diversify your portfolio.

Enabling clients to access exclusive investment strategies. View Funds



Provides Access to Professional Fund Managers

Low Investment Tickets

Facilitates fractionalization of investments in funds


A wide spectrum of investment strategies ranging from Arbitrage to Credit to Hedge Funds and many more


No additional costs are charged by Kristal.AI

Exceptional Performance

Funds with an impressive track record and potential for high profitability


Benefits from insights of the expert selection and advisory team

Easy Management

No time consuming management of portfolios

Contact our Relationship Manager

Customize products based on your market outlook and specific needs across equities, bonds, gold and more.

For investors looking to enhance portfolio yield based on market views.


Enhanced Earnings

Structures with potential to enhance portfolio yield based on market movements


Product features can be designed to articulate investor views


A flat and transparent fee structure like nowhere else

One-Click Access

A single feature ‘Ideas’ enables you to access recently launched and trending market opportunities

Contact our Relationship Manager

Can’t find what you are looking for? Create your own exclusive investment strategy with risk management & periodic reporting.

For seasoned investors who prefer to design their own portfolio.


Empowered Investing

Enables clients to create their own custom portfolio based on their unique needs

Unlimited Choice

Access to all possible exchange traded assets

Flexible Management

Flexibility in delegating the portfolio management role to us or actively taking up the day to day investment decisions, in your custom Kristal

Custom Fee Structure

A simple, transparent and a customized fee structure

Access to Expertise

Custom performance reporting as well as advisory support

Contact our Relationship Manager