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The key event in September will yet again be the FOMC Rate decision that is due on September 18th as well as the twitter account of @realDonaldTrump.
The Fed Fund Futures and Eurodollar market are currently indicating a 99.5% probability of another 25bp cut, and a 0.5% chance of a 50bp cut. Our outlook is conditional on other leading indicators, especially the US ISM Index (4th Sept) and the Employment report (6th Sept) which may or may not confirm the slowdown in economic activity in the US economy.
Our view is that the US economy is in late or even end of the expansion cycle, with a couple of other major economies already in flat to negative growth territory. (Germany and the eternal laggard Japan)
We maintain our view of staying conservative in the current environment and to target a 50:50 portfolio allocation between bonds and equity and also to add Gold to a portfolio on dips.
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