IC Speaks2 Mins Read
They Are Not Even Pretending Anymore!
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Advisory Letter: 21st January, 2020
On my way to work yesterday I read an interesting news piece in the WSJ: “Hedge Funds could make one potential Fed Repo-Market Fix hard to stomach.”
The essence of the article (in addition to a good video explaining the Repo Market) is that the Fed is considering opening the FICC Repo clearing facility also up to Hedge Funds. This is helicopter money for Wall Street. Yay, stimulus!
I am not in a position to recommend anything here, because I am starting to sound like a disgruntled perma-bear. Instead, I will share some charts to put things into context:
And the Fed’s balance sheet:
I am not saying it’s time to sell everything and hide in a nice place for a year, but its worth thinking about some insurance in your portfolio. For the ones fully invested, get some cash on the side or buy downside protection. If you have cash, don’t rush into chasing the move. Increased allocation to Gold was one of our themes since the middle of 2019, and now that we have eased off the extreme levels post-Iran, Investors are starting to wonder if this is the dip worth to buy into.
Lastly, a chart about the current long positioning. 3 of the 4 spikes since 2012 to the same levels as today, have been followed by a 5-20% correction.
But enough of this, for now, I do not want to scare anyone here. Instead, let me just end with the wise words of John Templeton:
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”
All the best,
Thomas Meichl
Disclaimer
This blog article has not been reviewed by the MAS. It is prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of units in the funds. This does not constitute any form of investment advice and Kristal Advisors (SG) Pte Ltd does not take into account your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs, or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Kristal Advisors (SG) Pte Ltd.
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