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Uncategorized5 Mins Read

iBond得幾手,抗通脹點夠喉?

在環球低息環境加上美國通脹升溫下,投資者認購iBond(通脹掛鈎債券)的反應相當熱烈。然而,基於「循環分派」機制分配,一般只能分配一至三手,讓小部份資金泊岸。即使選擇「即日鮮」,最近一批iBond在上市首日賣出只能賺取約2.75%回報,長遠未能抗通漲,亦失去iBond對沖通漲風險的原意。

其實除了香港的iBond以外,環球市場都有不同的通脹指數掛鈎投資產品,例如iShares TIPS Bond ETF(美國國庫抗通脹債券基金,下稱TIP),與美國CPI指數(消費者物價指數)掛鈎,亦是不少投資者在通脹時的選擇,立即比較一下兩者的分別:

 iBondiShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)
年回報較低 2%*較高 7.52%
潛在回報較低較高
入場費最少HKD 10,000低至HKD 1,000
分配或認購方法認購或二手市場買入二手市場買入
風險極低極低
流動性較低較高

*以去年發行、2023年到期的通脹掛鈎債券iBond首個付息日的年息率計算

較高潛在回報

根據過往一年數據,TIP的表現較iBond 2020好。iBond 2020浮息只有0.27%, 因此iBond投資者只有「保底」2%,100元。而TIP在過往一年的回報率達7.52%,大幅跑贏iBond。

此外,美國的經濟增長和通脹率亦優於香港。據彭博資訊,經濟學家對於美國2021年的通漲預測為逾3%,GDP增長達9.3%。國際貨幣組織(IMF)亦預期美通脹率於2023年及2024年達2.5%,及後於2026年回落至2.2%。另一邊廂,根據香港總商會的預測,預料香港GDP增長 3.5%,整體通脹率上升至1.4%。香港經濟飽受政局及疫情打擊,2020年7月綜合消費物價指數於近3年來首次出現通縮,雖然政府保證最低息率會有2%,但整體利率回報或會較以往差。

一般而言,GDP增長與通脹率呈正向關係。因此,市場對美國通漲率和GDP增長的高預期,同時令TIP回報的確認性和增長空間提高。

彈性較大 入場面檻較低

不同於iBond,TIP的入場面檻較低,只需約HKD 1,000即可買入,而每手iBond則需要約HKD 10,000。投資者較容易控制投資金額,大額小額均可。

此外,在資產組合、分散風險的角度而言,由於TIP的流動性較高,當資產組合需要進行再平衡(rebalancing)或需要緊急資金時,亦較容易調整組合或套現。

風險

整體而言,投資TIP的風險與iBond相若。雖然TIP的交投相比iBond活躍,但仍有交賣差價,捱價沽出的風險。

美國消費物價指數(CPI)或通脹率下跌可能會令TIP的價格波動。若出現通縮(deflation),TIP的回報亦會大打折扣。目前市場憂慮通脹升溫,以致不少人會留意與通脹掛鈎產品。若用作較長年期投資,市場上難免出現消費物價指數下跌甚至通縮情况,此時TIP票面價會下跌亦會令回報打折扣。

此外,若聯儲局加息亦有可能會令通脹率放緩。

立即網上開戶

除了TIP之外,Kristal.AI亦有不同的ETF可以達到對沖風險之效,例如:黃金ETF (GLD)數據中心房地產信托基金 REITs (VPN)銅 ETF (COPX) 等。

唔知點揀好?Kristal.AI的Robo Advisor可以根據你的風險承受能力,為你度身訂造投資組合,簡單又方便!

關於Kristal.AI
  • 1萬美金以下零手續費及佣金,可隨時存取資金
  • 結合大數據演算法,提供AI智能投資建議,推薦合適的投資組合
  • 懶人投資:平均成本法月供計劃
  • 平衡風險回報:全球市場ETF投資產品
  • 政府50萬存款保障

Kristal.AI機械人投資顧問,透過電腦程式,分析客戶的投資目標、風險等因素,制定投資組合,24小時無休地監察投資表現,然後根據市況,自動調整或建議客戶修訂投資策略,撇除人為或情感因素,作出理性投資決策。同時,有效減少人力成本,過程無需經紀,令入場門檻更便宜。在Kristal.AI,你可以投資全球不同主題、板塊(例如債券、股票、黃金、指數)的ETF投資產品,適合進行長線投資,做好財富管理。

Disclaimer

This blog article has not been reviewed by the MAS. It is prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of units in the funds. This does not constitute any form of investment advice and Kristal Advisors (SG) Pte Ltd does not take into account your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs, or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Kristal Advisors (SG) Pte Ltd.

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CPI iBond Inflation TIPS US Inflation

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