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如我所料⋯全球經濟急劇下滑,聯邦儲備局減息50點子是必然的事

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聯儲局在這個加息週期中已經把息口又零升至2.5%. 而主鮑威爾已表明對今年加息的態度轉為「耐心」,經濟出現轉弱的訊號。 以前他們不停地說美國經濟十分強勁, 但這次是聯邦儲備局首次承認經濟已經有轉弱。 但美國股市不是已經十分接近2018年的高位呢! 特朗普不是在他在競選的時候已經宣佈美國的經濟已經是一個big fat ugly bubble 。不過,特朗普仍打算提名支持減息的摩爾(Stephen Moore)出任聯儲局理事,以制衡鮑威爾。摩爾認為聯儲局應該馬上結束加息周期,減息半厘,形容加息是大錯誤,顯示美國已步入通縮,而他想用強美元以穩定物價。

白宮顧問拉里·庫德洛表示美聯儲應“立即”降息

白宮經濟顧問拉里·庫德洛表示,他希望美聯儲“立即將隔夜拆借利率降低50個基點”。

詳情

白宮經濟顧問拉里·庫德洛希望美聯儲“立即”將利率降低50個基點。

其實正正就吻合了我在3月29日接受I Money訪問時, 提及在債券市場投資者已經預計聯邦儲備局將會在短期辦減50點子的利息.

但如果大家有留意我寫的文章,我其實早在一月時已經提及聯邦儲備局下一個動作將會是減息而不是加息, 這就證明現在的社會經濟其實是受到十分大的威脅。 另外他更提及聯邦儲備局應該要立即停止縮表的行動,這個言論更加證明現在社會經濟是十分嚴峻。 他們十分擔心在短期內將會出現一個經濟衰退的現象,因為利率倒掛實在是一個歷史之中從來沒有失手的一個指標。現在已經倒掛了一個星期他們十分十分擔心這個情況會延續落去;所以要現在就要出手想把情況糾正。 你見到這批政府官員這樣慌慌張張的不停出來說利率倒掛是沒有什麼大件事和作出一些很多很多的解釋, 為何這次是和以前歷史是不同This time is different?但全部都是廢話, 在他們內心中,實在是十分可怕這個利率倒掛的情況. 如果經濟是他們所講的這樣好,美國經濟是這樣的蓬勃,為什麼他們這麼恐懼利率倒掛這個情況的出現和需要立即減息和要停止縮表呢?經濟蓬勃的時候不是用加息來控制經濟過熱、為什麼要減息呢?完全不合常理!這種就是典型的指鹿為馬!

但又為什麼他指定要減50點子而不是25點子? 因為在整條美國國庫債券的息率表中,有一個三年的債券現在的息口是2.21%, 這亦是整個yield curve之中最低的一年。 如果聯邦儲備局只把Fed fund rate減25點子, 那麼Fed fund rate只會停留在2.25, 而且條yield curve都是在部份倒掛。 並不是一個完美的沒有倒掛的yield curve。 但如果減50點, 那麽fed fund rate只得兩厘;那麼整條yield curve就變得正常。 這就是他天真的想法。他想用一個人為因素把整個債券市場自然規律完全破壞。 這是我們所指的管理經濟“managed economy”。所有經濟的指數及活動完全是被控制, 類似是一個是共產黨的形勢,而不是一個自由巿場。自由市場已經完全喪失了它地位。 其實這種事情自從特朗普上場之後,已經不停地發生。 股票市場是被人為因素完全被控制及扭曲。全部都由中央銀行及國家領袖100%完全支配所有活動。聯邦儲備局已經不是一個獨立的機構,現在已變成特朗普其中一個部門!

我所講的問題是指出美國政府確實和聯邦儲備局都十分擔心倒掛利率的問題,所以他們用盡所有方法想把這個利率倒掛情況搞返正,到達一個完美的情況先至解除威脅。 “司馬昭之心路人皆見”! 利率倒掛的問題令到美國政府及聯邦儲備局十分頭痛, 這就證明這個問題的嚴重性。亦是12月26號之後鮑維爾的態度有180度轉變, 由鷹轉為鴿主要原因。就是因為這個利率倒掛令他已經感受到十分大的壓力。他們盡量把這個息率線變成正常化。 去做各樣的糾正包括言論及粗暴的行政干預。

庫德洛説: “我讚同總統希望美聯儲停止縮減其資產負債表這種看法” 。

“看看一些指標 – 基本上經濟看起來非常健康,我們只是不希望有加息的威脅,”他補充說。 “那裡沒有通貨膨脹,所以我認為美聯儲的行動可能是過頭了。”

特朗普的評論是在央行上週決定推遲加息之後發表的。美聯儲在其最近的會議上還建議,今年剩餘時間內可能不需要提高借貸成本。

鮑威爾強調海外經濟增長放緩,但美聯儲並未在其3月會議上表明降息是必要的。特朗普批評央行增加借貸成本的計劃,但庫德洛的建議標誌著白宮迄今為止最明確的指示之一!簡直變本加厲越來越過分!

庫德洛重申,總統沒有計劃試圖取代鮑威爾擔任美聯儲主席。你信嗎?揾鬼都唔信!簡直當我們是蠢蛋!

庫德洛說“在全球範圍內,存在很多弱點。在歐洲,歐元區幾乎陷入衰退。至於中國,在我們談判貿易時顯示他們的經濟非常非常弱, 在沒有通貨膨脹的情況下,由於存在一些全球威脅,在某種程度上……我不介意看到美聯儲降低其目標利率。”

來自白宮的言論也標誌著從歷史規範的轉變。此前美聯儲主席 – 從格林斯潘到珍妮特耶倫 – 都強調了美聯儲在製定貨幣政策時獨立於政治議程的重要性。美聯儲的獨立性允許它有時做出不受歡迎的決定如提高利率,這種決定不會受政治家干預 。

特朗普去年表示央行 在2018年加息的行動,將鮑威爾歸咎於股市下跌,並宣布他對鮑威爾決定在2018年繼續加息是“瘋子”表示“不滿意”。

庫德洛曾在回應總統去年10月發表的“瘋子”評論時說,“我們都知道美聯儲是獨立的。總統並沒有對美聯儲施加政策。他從來沒有像這樣說過 一些會影響聯邦儲備局的獨立位置的言論。。。” 超勁的慌言這就是我的評語!

Direct Quote:

In response to the president’s “loco” comment last October, Kudlow said “we all know the Fed is independent. The president is not dictating policy to the Fed. He didn’t say anything remotely like that.

My comment: B.S. (IN CAPITAL LETTER).

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