x

Start investing with a
free Kristal.AI account.

icon

Simple. Secure.

*Error message

現在是否買債券的好時機?

2767 ViewsNo Comments
featured_img

今天講一講現在是否買債券的好時機。

現在可以分兩種講法。第一是買企業債,第二是買美國國庫債券。我暫時今天只講用美元做單位的債券而不是其他貨幣。

買債券其實對一些零售層面的投資者來說十分困難。最重要就是因為債券市場的透明度十分差,而且買賣的定價沒有一個標準,每一間銀行或者證券行出的價都有很大相差異。可以咁樣講,買賣差價亦都可以很闊冇特定標準,畀喺股票市場的透明度,債券市場價格的透明度較差,所以投資者從不同的銀行或證券行所得到的資訊會十分參差,買賣的價錢也有很大分別。每間證券行或銀行收取的佣金也不是一樣,最貴的可以去到0.5%佣金。所以如果選擇了高佣金平台,在短線投資方面是沒有什麼利潤可言的。買債券是一個謹慎投資,最主要的原因就是因為買賣差價十分大。

現在講企業債券。企業債券有分高息及低息的。高息的通常是一些例如內房債券或一些低評級的發展中國家債券。評級方面在bbb-以下。他們比的息率也比較上高。但是在現今的環境這些息率我覺得是不值得去冒風險去購買。

如果市場如我所料未來這一年中將會有金融大海嘯出現,這些企業債券尤其是一些低級的企業很多都會倒閉,而倒閉的時候這些債券當然就會受到十分大的影響。投資者可能失去全部的本金。而且上升的潛力現在已經十分少,如果你用上升潛力比較風險因素來衡量,我覺得現在是不值得冒這個風險去買一些尤其是所謂的內房債券。當然每個人有他們的風險胃口。但是我覺得買債券最重要就是買了之後要坐得舒服。如果市場上有什麼變化例如中美貿易戰有任何升級的情況影響之下或者全球經濟繼續放緩這些所謂高息的債券或者高風險的債券的價格波動將會十分大。投資者在mark-to-market 會損失十分龐大。如果你還是用槓桿原理去買這些債券,情況更加危險因為隨時會因為價格的下跌會令到你的按金比例不足。而導致要call孖展。那時你有兩種方法可以做第一要把手頭上的債券賣出,當然損失會十分龐大。第二就是另外再籌找資金去付出這些不足的孖展按金。

如果你問我,我現在有支槍指住我頭一定要我去買債券!我不買債券就不舒服!那麼我覺得比較適合你的就是買一些高評級的公司債。另外一樣地方就是要買一些短年期的高級別的公司債,例如aa或者a以上的評級。年期一定要短不可以太長。因為就算這些高級別的公司債如果年期太長,當金融海嘯殺到嚟的時候,價格波動十分大。短年期的高級公司債例如一至三年的可以接受。但超過十年以上的就算是高級別高質素的公司債我暫時都覺得是十分危險的。在債券方面現在不是去進取的時候而是最重要去保本。最希望是收息直至年期到的時候把本金收回就算了!

最後我要講一講美國國庫債券。

在這幾個月美國國庫債券的價格已經下跌了大約8%左右。息率升了大約四十點。現在是不是合時機買這些美國國庫債券呢?我相信現在可以還在等一等!

我相信美國聯邦儲備局減息的趨勢會繼續下去,而始終有一日美國息率會降至零,甚至負息。最好的例子就是日元及歐羅的國庫債券已經息率到了負息!當這情況出現之下這些國庫債券的價格必會上升。但唯一一樣嘢會令人擔心的就是有冇機會中國會大幅拋售這些美國國庫債券來報復美國對中國的貿易戰及其他方面的行為而做出報復的決定。這是一個大問號如果中國真的是大量拋售美債券這些國庫債券的價格將會急劇下跌。投資者將會損失龐大!如果你真的想投資入一些比較上穩健的投資工具可以考慮短期一至兩年期的美國國庫債券去投資。

結論就是暫時我都不會把大量資金買入債券。我會再等一段時間,因為現在十分多的不明朗因素。全世界就算每一個國家的領導人都無從入手。不知世界日後怎樣的去向!簡單的來說,例子如英國脫歐問題的結果無人能知。就算特朗普,英國首相,習近平這些國家領導人及歐盟的領導人也沒有辦法知道英國脫歐未來的去向。另外一個嚴重的問題就是中美的糾紛。我並不是說貿易戰,而是中美全面性的對抗。冷戰時代開始這。亦是一個沒有人能夠預測到結果將會是如何產生。

另有一個更加嚴重的問題就是民粹主義的抬頭。許多國家的平民百姓,在這十幾二十年因為受到不平等的對待或者國家領導人及本身國家不能夠滿足平民百姓的需求,或不能夠給他們有一個平等或公正的待遇,令到積怨愈來愈深。相信在未來時間一個一個的爆發!現在有幾個比較常嚴重的國家就是智利阿根廷委內瑞拉。而我們的香港也是其中一個十分大的一隻黑天鵝。如果香港的事情不能夠圓滿地結束或產生一些更加嚴重的血腥暴力事件出現,整個世界的經濟及國家安全亦會受到困擾。全球會發生更多的示威遊行必會出現!民粹主意產生出來的總統將會一個一個在全球遍地開花地在每一個國家產生!如果你們有留意國際新聞很多國家這幾年一些洲民粹主義思想的領袖衫已經成為國家領導人!最近大家亦都留意到智利的情況都令人擔憂。遊行衝突事件及示威愈演愈烈!

當然你會問這些事件究竟同埋債券有什麼關係!但我可以話畀你聽,買債券一定要做功課!首先要留意的事就是全球或者每一個國家政治情況及經濟穩定情況!買債券是一個很高深的學問不能夠胡亂去投資!一定要研究清楚全球經濟政治軍事環境因素才可以買你第一隻債券!

================================================================================

現金管理一直是資產配置中重要的一環,但自從2008年美聯儲將利率降至0之後,現金效率大幅下降。以後,諸多國家亦跟進此降息潮,導致現今全球固定收益投資有很大部分呈現負收益。然而,在過去幾年裡,持續降息的情況已經改變,尤其對於美元固定收益而言,美聯儲已將利率提高至2.5%。不過,對於不能直接投資美聯儲利率投資者(也就是所有人),如何在不承擔不當風險的情況下,獲取接近的收益?

建議考慮以下的美國債券投資組合,立即免費登記!

投資50,000美元或以下無額外收費

  • 0佣金
  • 0手續費
  • 0表現費

cross
Change your country to India?

You’re now visiting Kristal.AI Worldwide.
To explore diverse offerings in Indian and global products, select India as your country.

ind

India

hkg

Hong Kong

sgp

Singapore

global

Other
Accredited Investor Declaration

This is offered only to Accredited and Institutional Investors as defined under the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“Act”), which broadly comprises of regulated financial Institutions, large corporates, high net worth individuals and sophisticated investors.

An Accredited Investor is an individual
  • Whose net personal assets exceed in value SGD 2 million (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency) with value of his/her primary residence capped at SGD 1 million, or
  • Whose financial assets (net of any related liabilities) exceed in value SGD 1 million (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency), or
  • Whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than SGD 300,000 (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency)

I agree to opt-in as Accredited Investor and will submit required documentation to confirm the same.

< Back Proceed as Private Wealth

Wealth Management Solutions
Accredited Investor Declaration

This is offered only to Accredited and Institutional Investors as defined under the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“Act”), which broadly comprises of regulated financial Institutions, large corporates, high net worth individuals and sophisticated investors.

An Accredited Investor is an individual
  • Whose net personal assets exceed in value SGD 2 million (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency) with value of his/her primary residence capped at SGD 1 million, or
  • Whose financial assets (net of any related liabilities) exceed in value SGD 1 million (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency), or
  • Whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than SGD 300,000 (or it’s equivalent in a foreign currency)

I agree to opt-in as Accredited Investor and will submit required documentation to confirm the same.

Proceed as Private Wealth

THEMATIC STRATEGIES

Enabling clients to invest in trending themes like FAMANGThe FAMANG Kristal invests in Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet’s Google stocks. Assets are carefully chosen by an algorithm in order to deliver a superior returns based on past performance. The strategy is rebalanced every quarter., TECHGlobal Technology ETFs is a genetic algorithmic strategy focussed specifically on the Technology sector., ESGProvides exposure to higher rated environmental, social, and governance (ESG) companies while accessing large- and mid-cap stocks in Europe, Australia, Asia and the Far East., etc. with a single click or just create your own thematic basket.

Future-proof your portfolio and capture emerging investment themes.

OVERVIEW

Explore and Identify

Select from a range of expertly designed trending and diverse themes

Efficient Execution

Enabling easy exposure to your preferred themes without the hassle and costs of individual security selection and execution

Only the Best

A ready-made collection of Kristals that derive the best of the specific asset class or theme

Unique Mix

An optimised blend of ETFs and individual counters, enhancing efficiency and profitability

Contact our Relationship Manager
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Diversify your portfolio with exclusive Private Equity, Pre-IPO deals, VC Funds & other investments like Bitcoin, Gold, Hedge Funds and many more.

Kristal fractionalizes difficult-to-access deals and opportunities.

OVERVIEW

Instant Access

A wide range of alternative asset classes such as Gold, Bitcoins, Hedge Funds and many more; readily made available

Risk Management

Enables investments in diversified assets hence spreading the risk

Easy Tracking

Enables you to get a consolidated view of investments in all assets at one place, hence facilitating easy monitoring and tracking

Exclusive Deals

Access to exclusive Venture Capitalist, Startup as well as pre-IPO investment opportunities

Low Investment Tickets

Facilitates fractionalization of investments in deals

Contact our Relationship Manager
FUNDS PLATFORM

Professionally managed funds with active investment strategies, screened for you by our investment committee to diversify your portfolio.

Enabling clients to access exclusive investment strategies.

View Funds

OVERVIEW

Access

Provides Access to Professional Fund Managers

Low Investment Tickets

Facilitates fractionalization of investments in funds

Diversity

A wide spectrum of investment strategies ranging from Arbitrage to Credit to Hedge Funds and many more

Fees

No additional costs are charged by Kristal.AI

Exceptional Performance

Funds with an impressive track record and potential for high profitability

Leverage

Benefits from insights of the expert selection and advisory team

Easy Management

No time consuming management of portfolios

Contact our Relationship Manager
TAILOR-MADE PRODUCTS

Customize products based on your market outlook and specific needs across equities, bonds, gold and more.

For investors looking to enhance portfolio yield based on market views.

OVERVIEW

Enhanced Earnings

Structures with potential to enhance portfolio yield based on market movements

Customization

Product features can be designed to articulate investor views

Fees

A flat and transparent fee structure like nowhere else

One-Click Access

A single feature ‘Ideas’ enables you to access recently launched and trending market opportunities

Contact our Relationship Manager
BUILD YOUR OWN KRISTAL

Can’t find what you are looking for? Create your own exclusive investment strategy with risk management & periodic reporting.

For seasoned investors who prefer to design their own portfolio.

OVERVIEW

Empowered Investing

Enables clients to create their own custom portfolio based on their unique needs

Unlimited Choice

Access to all possible exchange traded assets

Flexible Management

Flexibility in delegating the portfolio management role to us or actively taking up the day to day investment decisions, in your custom Kristal

Custom Fee Structure

A simple, transparent and a customized fee structure

Access to Expertise

Custom performance reporting as well as advisory support

Contact our Relationship Manager