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Kristal每月總結| 2019年4月29日

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K只有15秒? 這是你需要知道的。

以下是上週發生的重大全球事件的簡明摘要。

正面

1. 美國經濟正處於復蘇模式 — 第一季度GDP超預期

2.  亞馬遜稱其第一季業績創新紀錄

3. 優步(Uber) 更新了首次公開招股的申請,目標是900億美元的收入

 

負面

1. 德意志銀行停止合併談判—發布收入下滑了9%和股價下跌了3%

2. 特朗普在表示希望石油輸出國組織削減成本後,美國原油價格下跌2.5%

3. 中國股市經歷自18年10月以來最糟糕的一周

現在,讓我們了解更多詳情。

 

正面

1.美國經濟正處於復蘇模式 — 第一季度GDP超預期

你應該知道什麼

美國經濟一直在掙扎,而美聯儲的決定仍然像以往果斷。 如果數字是關鍵因素的話,其實美國的狀況是良好的,在第一季度GDP就增長了3.5%。 今年早些時候接受調查的道瓊斯投資者也估計有了2.5%的增長。

你應該注意什麼

這是過去四年美國經濟最好的一年。 個人支出並沒有增長太多(僅為1.2%),但非耐用品和服務的支出抵消了耐用品支出的下降。 通貨膨脹率處於低位,因此可支配收入的3%增長有助於經濟反彈,推遲去年政府關閉的低點。

建議閱讀:第一季度美國經濟增長3.2%,高於預期

2.亞馬遜稱其第一季業績創新紀錄

你應該知道什麼

亞馬遜上週(4月26日)公佈了其盈利報告,並表示自今年年初以來已創下36億美元的新紀錄利潤。 這是對比去年的16億美元利潤高接近兩倍多。 這家科技巨頭還宣布,它將在未來幾天投資8億美元,以確保為期一天的交付成為所有亞馬遜Prime訂單的常規。 這消息令亞馬遜股票上漲了1%。

你應該注意什麼

亞馬遜一直都並不是一個有巨大利潤的來源。 該公司在創建履行中心,實體店和優質視頻內容,並在該方面投入了大量資金。 雖然銷售數字可能已經下降,但公司現在已進入增長緩慢但利潤一致的階段。 並正如預期的那樣,大部分收入來自AWS和廣告。

推薦閱讀:
這是亞馬遜的收益

3.優步(Uber) 更新了首次公開招股的申請,目標是900億美元的收入

你應該知道什麼

優步已更新其首次公開招股的申請,並取消了大部分公共交通工具。 這些年來,優步曾談到成為公共交通的補充。 但在4月11日發布的初始申請中,該公司提到公共交通是競爭對手,也是影響其潛在增長的因素。 專家對這種語言感到不滿,所以該公司的300頁文件現已修改。 此外,優步還透露了其IPO產品,每股價值45至50美元。 報告顯示該公司目前的目標是高達9000萬美元的估值。

你應該注意什麼

初步報告顯示該公司價值1.2億美元,但在Lyft慘敗之後這些數字似乎已經下降。 即使數量較少,優步的產品仍將是該谷(Valley) 的最大產品。投資者不要忘記,優步的乘車共享業務實際上已停滯不前。 優步在2018年的運營中遭受了30億美元的損失,並且在5年內損失了大約120億美元用於維持其市場份額。 而這些數字將來只會增加。

建議閱讀:為什麼優步的首次公開募股可能被高估

負面

1.德意志銀行停止合併談判—發布收入下滑了9%和股價下跌了3%

你應該知道什麼

在宣布與競爭對手德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)進行合併談判後的第二天,德意志銀行公佈了其第一季度盈利,其利潤增長了67%。 可以,這只是歸於損失減少和緊縮措施,而並不是收入增長。 德意志銀行股票在法蘭克福市場下跌3%,導致去年累計虧損40%。

你應該注意什麼

在發生全球危機之後,德意志銀行已經失去了動力和方向。 投資銀行業務收入下降13%至33億歐元(37億美元),而該部門的成本總計34億歐元(38億美元)。 與德國商業銀行合併可能有助於銀行擺脫這種低迷,但隨著交易的減少,投資者現在要求首席執行官克里斯蒂安·賽奇提出更詳細的計劃。 去年,該銀行不得不削減數百個工作崗位才能維持下去。 現在剩下的選擇都是激烈的轉折:要么退出美國市場並減少損失,要么完全徹底改革其投資銀行戰略。

建議閱讀:德意志銀行沒有計劃反擊

2.特朗普在表示希望石油輸出國組織削減成本後,美國原油價格下跌2.5%

你應該知道什麼

週五,特朗普總統宣布他曾要求歐佩克“馴服”原油價格。 因此,美國西德克薩斯中質原油期貨價格下跌1.91美元,每桶63.30美元,當日暴跌了2.9%,收盤時下跌1.1%。 布倫特原油期貨在觸及一周低點71.31美元後,下跌了2.20美元,即是3%。每桶變成72.15美元。 有些歐洲國家因石油質量不佳而關閉俄羅斯石油供應,這令布倫特原油價格上漲至75美元。 最近的下跌可能會破壞美國原油多年來最長的牛市。

你應該注意什麼

就像美中談判一樣,原油的未來也處於滑坡。 美國政府已經重申其對伊朗石油供應的放棄立場,導致了石油價格隨後上漲3%。 政府還表示已取得沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋等國的承諾,​​以填補因關閉伊朗供應而留下的空缺。 同時,還有報導說特朗普實際上沒有與歐佩克總部進行任何談判。 沙特能源部長Khalid al-Falih還指出,沒有“立即”需要抽取更多的石油,而且只有在各國要求更多供應的情況下才能這樣做。

建議閱讀:特朗普沒有與維也納歐佩克總部的任何人交談過

3.中國股市經歷自18年10月以來最糟糕的一周

你應該知道什麼

今年上海和深圳指數均表現良好。 上證指數上漲近24%,而深成指數基金ETF漲幅超過34%。 中國人民銀行發布聲明稱其將在經濟復甦中削減經濟支撐,導致市場下挫約6%。

你應該注意什麼

中國人民銀行表示,既不會收緊貨幣政策,也不會放寬貨幣政策。 然而,內部人士對其方法的看法有所不同。 中國人民銀行一直非常關注並向陷入困境的行業注入資金,而不是採用全系統的現金注入政策。 中國第一季度的經濟報告也表明,由於經濟處於上升趨勢,銀行可能暫停其現金管理舉措,以進一步評估形勢。 這引發了一些投資者的擔憂,他們認為第一季度的數據很高,只是因為政策的限制較少,而且收緊監管可能會再次阻礙經濟增長。

建議閱讀:中國股市跌至3週低點,因投資者擔心增長刺激措施

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