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Kristal每週回顧|2019年10月08日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 美國9月份失業率3.5% 創50年新低
  • 美國製造業數據疲 跌至逾十年新低
  • 印度年內第五次降息,並下調經濟增長預期
  • 香港經濟遭大行唱淡,花旗與高盛均料第三季陷收縮

1.美國9月份失業率3.5% 創50年新低

美國勞工部上週公布最新就業報告,美國9月份的失業率創下了50年新低,整個經濟體接近充分就業。就業報告公布後,股市高開,道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲近150點。

美國上週五(10/4)公布9月份非農就業報告,新增就業數達13.6萬,失業率更創下50年新低,僅3.5%。

據勞工部的報告,美國失業率下降了0.2個百分點,至3.5%,與1969年12月的水平相符。就業不足率也有所下降,下降了0.3個百分點,至6.9%,為19年來的最低水平持平,接近6.8%的歷史最低點。報告還上調了8月的新增就業人數,從先前13萬個上調至16.8萬個,使得第三季度的月平均新增就業達到11.9萬個。儘管美國新增就業人口出現放緩趨勢,仍維持適度成長,且美國失業率來到歷史新低,也讓市場預期可能使美國聯準會放緩降息的腳步。

2.美國製造業數據疲 跌至逾十年新低

據美國供應管理協會(ISM)10月1日公布的數據報告,美國9月全國製造業指數下降1.3點,至47.8,為2009年6月大衰退結束以來最低水平。該指數低於50表明製造業活動萎縮。市場原本預期升至50上方。路透社說此前歐元區公布的數據顯示,製造業錄得近七年最大幅度萎縮。

9月製造業指數降至10年低點,同月的服務業指數成長亦跌至2016年8月以來新低,加劇市場對經濟衰退的擔憂。

美國總統特朗普持續與中國打貿易戰、美國消費者支出減少和美國主要工廠製品銷售疲軟,早已使投資者對美國經濟感到憂心,如今ISM製造業PMI連續兩個月低於50榮枯線,進一步加深金融市場對美國第三季經濟成長可能急遽放緩的憂慮。

3.印度年內第五次降息,並下調經濟增長預期

印度央行將基準利率從5.40%下調25個基點至5.15%,為年內第五次降息,累計降息幅度達135個基點。並將2020財年經濟增速預期從6.9%下調至6.1%。印度央行今年2月、4月、6月分別降息25個基點,8月降息35個基點。印度央行聲明稱,貨幣政策委員會六名成員一致支持降息,維持寬鬆立場。

印度央行將基準基準利率從5.40%下調至25個基點至5.15%,為年內第五次降息,轉換降息幅度達135個基點。到2020財年GDP增速預期從6.9%下調至6.1%。

週五的降息使印度基準利率降至近10年來的最低水平,此前政府採取了一系列財政措施來刺激經濟增長,包括出人意料地削減200億美元的企業稅。印度央行表示,儘管政府最近宣布的措施可能有助於增強私人消費,刺激私人投資活動,但經濟持續放緩證明,應加大努力恢復增長勢頭。

4.香港經濟遭大行唱淡,花旗與高盛均料第三季陷收縮

香港經濟情況令人相當憂慮。隨著社會大眾的社會示威事件日益升級,加上中美貿易摩擦等因素拖累,香港經濟狀況持續惡化。政府昨日公布8月零售銷貨值按年下跌23%,為紀錄以來最大跌幅。此前財政司司長陳茂波透露,若在本月底公布的第三季經濟會出現收縮,香港便會陷入技術性衰退,又透露香港政府在現財政年度出現赤字機會相當大。

摩根大通則指出,在社會事件於短期內解決存有不明朗,加上中美貿易戰持續,相信今年全年增長只有0.3%。

大行亦看淡香港經濟前景,其中高盛預料第三季經濟將倒退2%,全年則收縮0.6%,又指出從政府最新公布的零售消費數字,反映出社會事件對旅遊及消費行業帶來影響。另一大行花旗將今年香港經濟增長預測,由1.8%降至0.6%,明年增長預測由2%降至1.4%。該行同樣預期第三季經濟出現倒退,幅度為0.3%。

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