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Kristal每週回顧|2019年10月14日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 上周道指及納指升約0.9%,標指升約0.6%
  • 中美貿易戰,若干國獲益
  • 全球競爭力排名出爐,新加坡超越美國居首
  • 英脫協議現轉機,英鎊強漲

1.上周道指及納指升約0.9%,標指升約0.6%

美股連續第三日上升, 中美談判取得成果, 達成第一階段貿易協議, 投資者情緒變得樂觀, 買盤積極入市。美股三大主要指數上周五收市都升超過百分之1。道瓊斯工業平均指數上日高見27013點, 最多升517點; 收報26816點, 升319點, 升幅百分之1.21。納斯達克指數上日高見8115點, 最多升165點; 收報8057點, 升106點, 升幅百分之1.34。標準普爾500指數上日收報2970點, 升32點, 升幅百分之1.09。

美股3大指數止跌回升,道瓊斯指數一度升穿26500點水平。

總結上星期, 道指升百分之0.91; 納指升百分之0.93; 標普500指數升百分之0.62。被視為貿易晴雨表的Caterpillar在道指中表現最佳,升2.7%。蘋果股價亦漲1.4%。晶片股同樣上揚,英特爾(Intel)漲1.2%,Nvidia升1.3%。

2. 中美貿易戰,若干國獲益

受惠於中美貿易戰,不少大型企業已將部分或全部生產線搬往越南,使該國今年首8個月對美出口大幅增長21.5%。數據顯示,越南2019年對美國商品出口猛增34%,約80億美元,這使越南2019年GDP增長預期可衝擊8%。此外,台灣、馬來西亞、孟加拉,以及印度也不同程度收益,尤其是印度,近幾個月來,成功吸引蘋果公司主要加工商富士通落戶該國。

美中貿易戰開打,美國對來自中國大陸的產品課加高關稅,不少位於中國大陸的廠商或投資者紛紛遷出中國大陸,東南亞因為地理位置和相對低廉的營運成本而成為轉移陣地首選,越南是首波搶進的地點,緬甸、泰國和柬埔寨也在考量之列。

在亞洲之外,墨西哥也是貿易戰受益國之一,一些在中國的美國公司選擇遷往墨西哥。2019年上半年墨西哥對美國出口同比增加了10%。另一美洲國家巴西在某種程度上也受益於貿易戰。在對巴西重要的大豆貿易中,巴西對中國出口增加幾乎翻倍。一年間從出口1400萬噸增加到2500萬噸。

3.全球競爭力排名出爐,新加坡超越美國居首

世界經濟論壇(WEF)公布2019年全球競爭力報告,全球5強依次為新加坡、美國、香港、荷蘭及瑞士。新加坡今年超越美國位居榜首,香港的亦比去年攀升4位,台灣上升一名排第12,中國大陸跟去年一樣排第28。世界經濟論壇2019年全球競爭力報告今年比較141個經濟體,評分指標包括環境便利性、人力資本、市場以及創新生態系統4大類,每項之下再分12個細項。若只計亞太國家及地區,首3名依次是新加坡、香港及日本。

世界經濟論壇指本港在四項指標包括宏觀經濟穩定、金融系統、產品市場,排名全球第一,數目是各經濟體之中最多;但創新能力只排全球26位,較新加坡低12分。

新加坡今年取代美國成為全球最具競爭力經濟體,該國在公部門、勞動力、多元化與基建項目取得高分,平均餘命更名列全球第一,新生嬰兒預期可活到74歲。WEF指出,美國退居第二但仍為「創新大國」。美國在易尋技術人才、創投資金充足、企業動能活絡等方面遙遙領先,但卻遭到加徵貿易關稅、平均餘命下降與整體數位技能偏低等項目拖累,導致第一名位置拱手讓人。

4.英脫協議現轉機,英鎊強漲

英國脫歐情勢峰迴路轉,談判逐步取得進展,歐盟正準備批准與英國針對脫歐事宜展開密集磋商,顯示歐盟認為未來幾周可望與英國達成協議,讓英國得以避開「無協議脫歐」的命運。英國脫歐協議再次出現希望,激勵英鎊匯率11日盤中勁揚。

英鎊連續兩日向好,累升逾4%,創7個月高。惟英國脫歐仍有不明朗因素,包括延遲英國脫歐限期,英鎊後市相信仍有一定壓力。

英國首相約翰遜與愛爾蘭總理瓦拉德卡10日進行兩個半小時、「富有成果」的會談,瓦拉德卡說,相信能在10月31日的英國脫歐期限前,達成脫歐協議,並呼籲談判員重啟在布魯塞爾的談判,有望在未來幾周達成脫歐協議。英國脫歐取得進展,激勵英鎊兌美元11日盤中升值逾1%至1.2589美元,為三個月來最高,兌歐元也升至0.8785歐元,為21周高點。

 

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