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Kristal每週回顧|2019年10月21日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 美國銀行建議重新規劃「股六債四」投資定律
  • 摩根資產:美國10年期息明年或跌穿1.5%
  • 中國9月實際使用外資按年增加0.5%
  • 中國經濟2019年第三季度增長繼續放緩

1.美國銀行建議重新規劃「股六債四」投資定律

長期以來,投資人一直被告誡:理想的投資組合應該持有 60% 的股票和 40% 的債券,這種組合在歷史上可以提供最大的股票收益,同時還可以提供多元化收益和較低的固定收益投資風險。美國銀行(BofA)投資組合策略師最近發布研究報告,認為「60/40法則」已不合時宜,有充分理由重新考慮債券在投資組合扮演的角色,並提高股票的比率。

該行表示,概念有變主因是今年以來,全球已有高達3,390億美元的資金流入債券基金,而流出全球股票基金的資金則達2,080億美元,這就令到目前買各地政府債券利率回報,低於全球大約1,100隻大型股票的股息率。換言之,買股吸引力更高。

據美銀分析,隨著全球經濟成長減緩,加上已開發市場經濟體人口老化,債券這種傳統上被視為較安全穩當的資產人氣變得比以前旺,協助催生債市價格「泡沫」,若投資人仍維持傳統「股票占60%、債券占40%」的資產配置,報酬率可能達不到目標。

2.摩根資產:美國10年期息明年或跌穿1.5%

摩根資產預期,美聯儲將於本月底會議再次減息,若12月前經濟數據未見改善,年底有機會再減0.25%,中長期不排除再次走向零利率,美國10年期國債孳息率到2021年有可能跌至1.2%,明年可能跌至1.5%。

許長泰稱過去一年期貨市場對利率的預測較聯儲局更正確,年底前聯儲局將減息兩次。

摩根資產亞洲首席市場策略師許長泰在台北一個會議中指出,過去一年期貨市場對利率的預測較聯儲局更正確,因為市場更專注經濟放緩與低通脹的變化。據此分析,年底前聯儲局將減息兩次,明年亦會再減一至兩次,明年美國10年期國債孳息率可能跌穿1.5%。由於10年期國債孳息率仍有下降空間,買入債券將有一定正回報

3.中國9月實際使用外資按年增加0.5%

商務部公布,內地9月實際使用外資(FDI)115.2億美元,按年增長0.5%;1-9月實際使用外資1007.8億美元,同比增長2.9%。若以人民幣計,內地9月實際使用外資791.8億元人民幣,按年增長3.8%;1-9月實際使用外資6832.1億元人民幣,同比增長6.5%。主要投資來源地中,澳門地區的升幅最大,達51.4%,其次是南韓和新加坡,兩者增幅超過20%,而來自香港的投資增加8.7%。

中國銀行保險監督管理委員會首席律師劉福壽表示,取消外資銀行主要股東資產條件,和設立外資保險的經營年限等要求,將為過去不符合條件,但其實具有專業特色的外資機構增加赴中國投資的吸引力。

為進一步對外開放金融市場,中國國務院上星期亦宣布修改「外國保險公司管理條例」及「外國銀行管理條例」,放寬外資銀行、保險公司准入市場門檻。新條例上路後,將放寬中外合資銀行的中方股東限制,取消中外合資銀行的中方唯一或者主要股東應當為金融機構的要求;開放在中國同時設立外國獨資銀行及分行,或設立中外合資銀行及外國分行。業務範圍也同步放寬,將外國銀行分行可以吸收大陸境內民眾的定期存款的金額下限,從每筆人民幣100萬元(約合新台幣433.3萬元)降至50萬元。

4.中國經濟2019年第三季度增長繼續放緩

中國官方數據顯示,今年7-9月期間,中國GDP同比增速為6%。此前市場對第三季度的增速預期為6.1%。中國經濟增速目前已經是近三十年來最低水平。儘管中國政府一直試圖通過減稅等政策支持刺激經濟,但這項數據顯示中國經濟發展動力進一步低迷。中國政府對今年經濟增速預期為6%至6.5%。而中國經濟增速放緩或對全球經濟帶來深遠影響。

中國國家統計局18日公布2019年第三季經濟成長率,剔除物價變動的影響後,國內生產總值(GDP)實際成長率是6.0%,為27年半新低。這將進一步提高北京當局壓力,必須推出更多刺激方案,減輕中美貿易戰帶來的影響。

最近幾十年來,中國已經成為帶動全球經濟增長的重要引擎。從日用消費品到機械產品,中國對全球不同商品的大量需求對各國經濟增長都有支持作用。有分析人士擔憂,中國經濟增速迅速放緩可能會給本已低迷的世界經濟增添衰退風險。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級中國經濟學家朱利安·埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)認為,中國經濟面臨的壓力會在接下來數月間繼續增加。

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