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Kristal每週回顧|2019年11月18日

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【財經大事搶先看】 Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 市場預期樂觀,美國三大股指齊創新高
  • 美中貿易協議進展良好
  • 香港經濟十年首現衰退,今年料縮1.3%
  • 美國第4季GDP成長率可能陷入停滯

1. 市場預期樂觀,美國三大股指齊創新高

上週五,美國股市三大指數再創歷史新高。其中標普500指數連續六週上揚,漲幅0.77%,收在3120.46點,為兩年來的首次。美股道瓊斯指數上漲222.93點,漲幅0.8%,史上首次突破28,000點大關。納斯達克指數上漲61.81點,收在8540.83點。三大股指再次刷新歷史新高。

總結全星期表現,道指累積升約1.2%,納指及標普500指數分別升近0.8%及0.9%。標普500指數連升6個星期,是逾兩年來最長升勢。

美國總統特朗普,週五宣佈了醫院和醫療保險公司價格透明化的制度。消息公佈後,醫保上市公司平均股價上漲超過2%,美國最大的醫保公司「聯合健康保險」股價漲幅超過4%。隨著中美雙方達成首階段協議機會增加,出口股普遍上揚,瑞聲科技(2018)升2.2%,申洲國際(2313)升2.2%,創科實業(0659)升2.2%。而受到美股破頂帶動,今天開市恒生指數高開115點,報26442點;國企指數高開10475點,高開50點。

2.美中貿易協議進展良好

中國大陸官媒新華社昨日報導,大陸國務院副總理劉鶴16日上午應約與美國貿易代表賴海哲、財政部長米努勤通話,雙方圍繞第一階段協議的各自核心關切進行建設性的討論,並將繼續保持密切交流。外界看好美中即將達成貿易協議。

美國白宮首席經濟顧問庫德洛(Larry Kudlow)11月14日則稱,美國貿易談判團隊已經與北京進行了十分有建設性的對話,雙方正在為協議進入最後階段,即將結束已經持續了16個月的貿易戰。

另外,白宮經濟顧問庫德洛上周亦曾表示,美中即將達成貿易協議。雖然美國總統特朗普還沒準備要簽字,但兩國磋商進展「非常好、十分具建設性」。彭博社11月15日報道稱,中美最近幾天舉行了工作級別的視像會議,主要討論的議題,從中國採購豬肉和大豆等美國農產品的詳細信息和時間表,到特朗普要求中國減少竊取知識產權的承諾。

3.香港經濟十年首現衰退,今年料縮1.3% 

受中美貿易戰和本地抗爭運動影響,香港第三季經濟按季收縮程度擴大至3.2%,按年衰退2.9%,是自2009年金融海嘯以來首次錄得按年跌幅,確認香港經濟已步入衰退。港府更在三個月內二度調低全年經濟增長,由八月覆檢時的0至1%,下調至收縮1.3%,亦是十年來首次出現年度倒退,有關跌幅,比投資界各大行預測平均倒退0.7%為高。

展望第四季,若示威活動持續,零售及旅遊業的情況會更差,加上出口疲弱,料第四季經濟不會特別好轉。如政府預料全年GDP倒退1.3%,推算第四季經濟將收縮3.3%,較第三季進一步惡化,即使風波在底前解決,經濟復蘇也只會在明年2、3月才會出現。

數據又顯示,香港經濟主要動力的內部需求,在第三季轉差,反映抗爭運動嚴重干擾消費活動,期內私人消費開支按年減3.4%,跌幅是十餘年來首見。另外,整體貨物出口跌幅繼續擴大,由第二季按年跌5.4%擴大至第三季下滑7.1%,反映環球需求放緩及中美貿易戰升溫因素。其次,由於旅遊業受社會事件重創,服務輸出亦急劇惡化,由第二季按年跌1.1%,擴大至急挫13.8%,是十六年前沙士爆發以來最大跌幅。

4. 美國第4季GDP成長率可能陷入停滯

華爾街近日的一再創下歷史新高似乎顯示美國經濟一片大好。然而,在今年的最後一季,經濟成長可能停滯不前的風險正在擴大。紐約 Fed 的 Nowcast 第 4 季 GDP 預估成長率僅 0.4%,低於該模型之前預測的 0.7% 成長。紐約 Fed 在最新的經濟報告中指稱這是部分「負面驚喜」所致,包括 10 月製造業生產下降。亞特蘭大 Fed 的 GDPNow 模型更為悲觀。第 4 季 GDP 追蹤指標降至 0.3%,低於一週前的 1%。亞特蘭大 Fed 將部分原因歸咎於上週五 (15 日) 公佈的疲弱消費者消費數據,該數據顯示,不包括汽車和汽油在內的零售額在 10 月僅微升 0.1%。

第 3 季 GDP 增速從年初的 3% 放緩至 1.9%。儘管消費者支出保持穩定,但製造業處於收縮狀態,商業支出已連續 2 季收縮。這種弱勢是由中美貿易戰和全球增長放緩驅動的。

這些 GDP 模型是依據續公佈經濟數據推估,並將隨著最新數據的發佈而頻繁更新。這意味著到今年年底前,這些預測數字可能最終看起來會過於悲觀。比如說,通用汽車 (GM-US) 罷工結束的事實可能會推動 11 月和 12 月的經濟成長。不過,這些 Fed 分行的 GDP 模型顯示,第 4 季美國經濟幾乎可能沒有成長。當成長放緩至停滯狀態時,它會使經濟更容易受到負面衝擊的影響,而負面衝擊可能會使經濟陷入衰退。

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