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Kristal每週回顧|2019年11月25日

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【財經大事搶先看】 Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 美國11月數據顯示,消費者信心指數高於預期
  • 中國絲路基金擬注資沙特阿美IPO ,金額高達100億美元
  • 雅高股價急跌98%後停牌,市值單日蒸發450億
  • 中美貿易戰前景不明,未能達成協議將調高關稅

1. 美11月數據顯示,消費者信心指數高於預期

上周五(11月22日),美國密歇根大學公佈11月份消費者信心指數高於預期的95.7,從上個月的95.5升至96.8,顯示美國消費者信心高漲。此外,距離黑色星期五(11月29日)購物日只剩下不到一週,美國各家零售商大力搶攻這個送禮節日,零售機構和分析師們預計今年總體銷售業績將再創新高,全美零售聯盟(NRF)預測今年家庭的購物旺季支出將比2017年增長近5%,逾7,000億美元。

在家庭財富增加的同時,消費者財務狀況的良好評價也達到了歷史新高。同時亦有分析師表示,持續的中美貿易戰和全球經濟增長放緩帶來的風險,可能會給消費者帶來負面衝擊。

密歇根大學消費者調查首席經濟學家理查科廷(Richard Curtin)解釋,美國在過去35個月中,有30個月的消費者信心指數達到或超過95。自1998年1月至2000年12月以來,這種樂觀程度從未見過,當時的消費者指數於34或36個月內,保持在100或更高。因面對企業招聘活躍、股市創歷史新高及美中貿易戰可能停火的背景,美國人對經濟前景抱有更樂觀的展望。

2.中國絲路基金擬注資沙特阿美IPO ,金額高達100億美元

作為世界上最賺錢的公司,沙特阿拉伯國營石油公司沙特阿美,已於11月17日開始售股,目標是在12月初通過國內首次公開募股籌集200億美元至400億美元。沙特阿美計劃通過出售1.5%的股份籌集240億美元至256億美元,而這可能是全球最大的首次公開募股(此前阿里巴巴曾籌集250億美元)。

消息人士稱,中國絲路基金 (Silk Road Fund) 正討論購買沙特阿美的上市股票,其他國有企業也有意加入購買行列。對於沙特阿美的投資,可望鞏固與沙烏地阿拉伯間的關係,進而為中國提供從原油獲利的機會。

近月來,中國國有石油生產商中石化集團和主權財富基金中國投資有限責任公司就投資沙特阿美進行討論,有知情人士向媒體透露,作為全球最大的石油進口國,中國可能通過主權財富基金和其他國有企業投入多達100億美元認購沙特阿美股份。不過目前尚未敲定投資者陣容,最終仍取決於中國政府。

3.雅高股價急跌98%後停牌,市值蒸發450億

被視為今年港股神話的雅高控股(3313),在年內升幅曾達到40倍,在上週初期股價又再創新高。但隨著上週四MSCI宣布暫停將雅高暫停加入旗下指數,股價即由高位大幅下挫,不到半日停牌,公司市值已由周三收市時的458億元,銳減至上周五收市後的8.67億元,市值蒸發450億元。

MSCI昨宣存雅高將不獲入選為MSCI中國全股票指數(MSCI China All Shares Index)成份股,原定有關入選於11月26日收市後生效。受消息拖累,雅高昨日出現洗倉式暴跌,單日大瀉98%,停牌前報0.305元,成交激增至5.68億元。

主要股東、由主席伍晶丈夫梁迦傑持有的宏勝國際,分別有1.5億股及3.86億股雅高股份於上周四及周五被強制斬倉,合共佔雅高總股本17.33%。據MSCI表示,本月7日宣布將雅高納入指數後,收到很多市場的持份者意見,質疑雅高流通量的公開訊息真確性,以及公司是否有足夠流動性以支持雅高納入指數,因此在進行獨立審查後同意上述擔憂,決定不將雅高納入指數,又指會繼續監察雅高。

4. 中美貿易戰前景不明,未能達成協議將調高關稅

美國總統特朗普(Donald Trump)11月19日表示,如果未能與北京達成協議結束貿易戰,美國將會調高對中國進口商品的關稅。中美貿易談判進展仍未明朗,官媒《環球時報》編輯胡錫進表示,美中貿易談判似乎再陷僵局,美國於中美貿易戰中佔上風,但程度不足以決定如何結束中美貿易戰。

美國總統特朗普於11月19日再次威脅稱,「如果我們不與中國達成協議,我只會把關税提得更高」,再次做出強硬表態令人懷疑美中還能否順利達成協議。

《華爾街日報》報道,中國官方近來邀美國談判代表赴北京磋商,美方卻不願前往。與此同時,中國不顧美國對“中國製造2025”的關切,上周宣布要投入一千四百多億人民幣推動製造業的轉型升級。這使得人們懷疑中國是否有誠意解決美國在談判時所關注的問題。中美原本計劃11月中於智利簽署首階段貿易協議,不過在智利舉行的亞太經合組織(APEC)峰會取消,兩國簽署協議的計劃仍然未有定案。報道指,如何和何時撤銷關稅,以及中國購買美國農產品的數量是癥結所在。

 

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