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Kristal每週回顧|2019年12月16日

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【財經大事搶先看】 Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 經濟回暖美元偏軟,有利新興市場股債
  • 保守黨贏得大選歐股升1%,英國銀行股大漲
  • 沙特阿美市值達2萬億美元,成為全球規模最大的 IPO
  • 美中達成第一階段貿易協定,三大指數小幅上漲

1. 經濟回暖美元偏軟,有利新興市場股債

根據回測2003年至2019年,比較標普500、全球股市、新興市場股市、美國公債、美國投資等級債及新興市場美元主權債表現,發現新興市場美元主權債的年化報酬風險比,表現較全球股市、新興市場當地貨幣債等主要資產更佳,適合納入退休資產配置規劃。

若中美貿易談判能趨和緩、通膨受到控制,以及各國央行能在全球經濟成長不確定下持續展現寬鬆的政策態度,結合新興市場國家的良好基本面,則將更有利於明年新興債市。

貝萊德智庫亞太區首席投資策略師龐文博(Ben Powell)指出,中美貿易關係好轉,全球經濟增長有望回升,而美國聯儲局近月重新擴張資產負債表,變相再次「印錢」令美元略為轉弱,令投資者風險胃納上升,利好新興市場股債,該行看好明年印尼及台灣股市,中長期則超配中國股債。

2. 保守黨贏得大選歐股升1%,英國銀行股大漲

由於持續逾三年多的脫歐困局變得明朗,加上有傳美國總統特朗普已簽署首階段貿易協議,歐股早市上揚,英國富時100指數升0.95%至7,342點;反映中型股的富時250指數飆4%。另外,德國DAX指數及法國CAC指數升逾1%。
英國民眾再次表達脫歐意願,由首相約翰遜領導的保守黨在大選中贏得過半議席,有望為脫歐掃除最後障礙。
英鎊匯價急升,兌美元曾突破1.35關,高見1.3514美元,漲2.68%,為2018年5月中以來的新高;最新報1.3426,升1.99%。每英鎊兌港元曾升至10.5475,最新報10.4846,升1.91%。英國銀行股大漲,蘇格蘭皇家銀行、巴克萊銀行及萊斯銀行分別升10%、7%及2%。維珍金融飆16%。工黨未能上台,英國公用股被國有化機會減低,跨國能源公司森特理克升18%。

3.沙特阿美市值達2萬億美元,成為全球規模最大的 IPO

沙烏地阿拉伯國營石油公司沙烏地阿美 (Saudi Aramco) 於上週三 (11 日) 開始在當地證交所掛牌上市,沙烏地阿美公司先前宣布 IPO 價格為每股 32 里亞爾 (約合 8.53 美元),募股總額達 256 億美元,超越中國電商巨頭阿里巴巴 2014 年於紐約上市時的 250 億美元,成為全球有史以來規模最大的 IPO。
沙地阿美成功上市,帶動沙地證券交易所在全球新股集資市場的排名,躍升至第四位,超過排名第五的上海證券交易所。
沙烏地阿美周三上市首日股價收市飆一成,公司市值漲至1.88萬億美元(折合約14.7萬億港元),超越美國蘋果公司的約1.19萬億美元。沙地阿美股價在開市前競價時段已抽高一成,由上市價32里亞爾,升至35.2里亞爾,觸及升停板機制,最終收市亦升一成,公司市值超越蘋果,成為全球市值最高上市公司。

4. 美中達成第一階段貿易協定,三大指數小幅上漲

中美貿易戰降溫,《華爾街日報》報道雙方即將達成第一階段協議,觸發環球股市大升,恒生指數收市飆升693點。惟美國總統特朗普其後表示,《華爾街日報》有關貿易談判的報道完全失實,尤其關於中美關稅的部分。最後中國國務院於晚上11時召開記者會,宣布兩國已達成首階段協議文本,美國將分階段取消對華關稅措施。

美國股市13日走勢極富戲劇性,先是因美國總統特朗普推文指華爾街日報有關貿易協議的報導「完全錯誤」而以低盤開出;接著特朗普又推文宣布與中國達成第一階段貿易協議而勁揚,道瓊指數一度竄升156點、衝上歷史新高峰。

受特朗普言論影響,美國股市上週五開市早段略為偏軟。惟隨着中方公布中美就協議文本達成一致,三大指數小幅上漲,道瓊斯工業平均指數微升3.33點,至28,135.38點。標準普爾500指數升0.23點,至3,168.80點。納斯達克綜合指數升17.56點,至8,734.88點。中美之間達成初步協議,有望結束歷時17個月的貿易戰。美國同意放棄向1,600億美元的中國進口商品徵收關稅,並同意降低現有的關稅,以換取中國購買大量美國農產品。

想了解更多最新財經資訊或投資建議,立即在此免費登記或聯絡我們(+852 51973884)咨詢!

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