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Kristal每週回顧|2019年12月2日

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【財經大事搶先看】 Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 美中氣氛緊張,黃金上週五漲7.40美元
  • 美國十年期債息升1.2點,發行企業債前承銷商售公債
  • 阿里巴巴下月納入恆生綜指,掛牌三天漲近13%
  • 製造業疲軟損信心,美股創近2個月最大跌幅

1. 美中氣氛緊張 黃金上週五漲7.40美元

因美中貿易爭端恐惡化,上週五(29日)黃金期貨上漲, 2月黃金漲7.40美元或0.5%,收每盎司1460.8美元。但總括而言,美國經濟數據樂觀削弱漲幅,黃金價格本月下跌54美元或3.5%,是9月來表現最差的月份。

當前國際貿易仍存在不確定性因素,因此黃金短時間在1450附近獲得了支撐。因此近期市場仍需關注國際貿易局勢進展,這將對黃金進行反向選擇產生關鍵影響。

美國總統川普已簽署《香港民主與人權法案》,引發中國強烈不滿,警告採取反擊措施。美國目前預定12月15日加徵新一輪中國產品關稅,市場擔憂2國關係緊繃,新法案可能會破壞雙方在此之前達成協議的可能。黃金價格雖跌破半年線支撐的關卡,然而卻未出現進一步向下走跌的態勢,反而力守在每盎司1,450至1,475美元價位間。在美中貿易談判未正式簽屬協議以前,都還有很多的變數,再加上美國的經濟正逐漸趨緩,甚至是漸漸步入衰退,因此在市場避險買盤支撐下,黃金價格短線走空大跌機會並不高。

2.美國十年期債息升1.2點,發行企業債前承銷商售公債

市場承銷商於12月大量企業債發行前出售持有國債,以達到鎖定利率,待企業債售出後再買入國債。有關市場行為推高債息,其中十年期債券孳息率升1.2點子至1.778厘。兩年期債券孳息率跌2.2點子至1.602厘。

從10月15日開始,美聯儲每個月將購買600億美元的美債,但與此同時,外國央行卻在拋售,全球央行已連續13個月減持美債,數額高達2993億美元,今年9月份,美國國債淨出售343億,創下九個月新高。

此外,今年以來,全球央行對美債的青睞程度也在逐漸降低。據美國財政部早前的國際資本流動報告顯示,中國、俄羅斯、日本、英國、德國、澳大利亞等全球央行級別的海外大債權人均大幅減持了美債,這和近期美債價格大幅上漲形成鮮明的對比。外國投資者對美國國債的需求降至金融危機之前以來的最低水平。

3.阿里巴巴下月納入恆生綜指,掛牌三天漲近13%

上星期,中國電子商務業者阿里巴巴香港(9988 HK)上市以來連三升,而且下月獲納入恆生綜指後估計很快就會納入港股通。上週四阿里巴巴盤中上漲3.16%,報199.30港幣,為香港掛牌以來第三天上漲,累計上市三天共上漲了13%。

阿里巴巴首日開市也無令散戶失望,開市報187元,較招股價高出6.25%,每手100股計,不計手續費賺1,100元。

此前恆生指數有限公司稱,阿里巴巴將於12月9日納入恆生綜合指數。同時,光銀國際研究部主管林樵基表示,預計中國監管機構很快會批准阿里巴巴納入港股通;如果納入,有機會吸引更多美國上市的中概股到香港上市。

4. 製造業疲軟損信心,美股創近2個月最大跌幅

美股不敵連串利空襲擊,12月首個交易日重挫。美國製造業數據欠佳,加上美國總統特朗普擴大貿易戰線,衝擊投資人信心,道瓊指數下挫268點,標普500指數創近兩個月最大跌幅。

美國供應管理學會(ISM)公布,11月製造業採購經濟指數(PMI)從10月的48.3,進一步下滑至48.1,差過市場預期的49.2。這意味着製造業再度萎縮,並拋離50盛衰分界線。

在投資人看好美中將達成協議緩和貿易戰的情況下,美股11月氣勢如虹,屢創歷史新高,並締造6月以來最佳單月表現。但最新數據顯示美國製造業景氣持續收縮,經濟隱憂再度浮上檯面,導致美股開高後一路走低。道瓊工業指數終場下挫268.37點,跌幅0.96%,收在27783.04點。標準普爾500指數下跌27.11點,跌幅0.86%,收在3113.87點,創10月8日以來最大單日跌幅。以科技股為主的那斯達克綜合指數下挫97.48點,跌幅1.12%,收在8567.99點。

 

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