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Kristal每週回顧|2019年12月9日

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【財經大事搶先看】 Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 美國就業數據強勁 ,道指初段升逾200點
  • 景順料明年全球經濟增長3%,新興市場股市被看好
  • 貿易談判的反覆,15日關稅期限前景未明
  • 中國11月外滙儲備低於預期,減95.7億美元

1. 美11月數據顯示,消費者信心指數高於預期

美國11月就業數據意外強勁,美國11月非農就業人口大增26.6萬人,大幅超出預期,並創10個月以來最高,薪資升幅也比經濟學家預測盤中還大。另外失業率降至3.5%,創50年來新低,優於經濟學家上月預計的維持在3.6%,激勵美股6日漲逾200點。

道瓊斯指數升逾200點,報27921點,上升243點,升幅近0.9%。標普500指數報3142點,上升24點,升幅近0.8%。納斯達克指數報8643點,上升72點,升幅約0.9%。

經濟學者指出,就業報告遠優於預期,加上首次申請失業就際金人數仍接近50年來低點,服務業就業擴張,消費者信心也維持高檔,顯示美國景氣能迎風而上,強勁的聘僱動能也暗示失業率將繼續下滑。最新就業數據支持Fed認為就業市場仍強,能夠支持消費者消費支出,並維持經濟持續成長的看法,因此12月中Fed會議時將更有理由「暫停」降息。

2.景順料明年全球經濟增長3%,新興市場股市被看好

景順首席環球市場策略師Kristina Hooper預期 ,全球央行2020年將會維持寬鬆貨幣政策,以及溫和財政刺激措施,故對資本市場的看法較整體經濟樂觀,並在2020年偏好風險資產多於非風險資產,經濟不明朗可能會繼續壓抑資本支出,料全球整體經濟增長率約為3%。

目前,新興市場基本面穩健,股票估值較已發展市場吸引,而科技行業的重要性日趨上升、與大宗商品周期的相關性亦有所下降。此外,中國推出的經濟刺激措施料將利好新興市場表現。

3. 貿易談判的反覆,15日關稅期限前景未明

隨著環球經濟增長的趨勢靠穩,加上貿易衝突和英國脫歐的憂慮有所減退,市場氣氛逐漸好轉。這些變化亦預示未來美元或將走弱,而新興市場有望成為最大受惠者。由於聯儲局更多寬鬆政策及投資者對收益率的追求,都是帶動新興市場股市投資的因素。另外,亞洲新興市場股市亦應受惠於中國及印度的財政刺激措施。而中國股市亦能受惠於中國金融市場開放和A股在MSCI指數佔比加重。

正在倫敦參加北約峰會的美國總統特朗普周二(12月3日)表示,美中貿易談判第一階段協議可能要等到明年11月美國大選後完成。

美國早前定於本月15日,對中國1560億美元商品加徵百分之15的關税關稅。總統特朗普12月3日表示,美中第一階段貿易協議可能要等到2020年大選之後才簽署,結果拖累股市,更讓道瓊工業指數出現10月初以來的最大單日跌幅。時隔一天,彭博社報導,儘管香港和新疆問題影響了談判進程,但美中雙方仍接近達成第一階段貿易協議,美國甚至會取消本月15日將生效的向中國貨品加徵的新關稅,消息再度刺激道指上揚。

4. 中國11月外滙儲備低於預期,減95.7億美元

雖然中國經濟成長放緩、與美貿易戰未停,但北京嚴格管制資本外流,加上外國投資人持續購買中國股、債,事實上外匯儲備從2018年底來不斷增加。然而最新數據顯示,中國外匯儲備在11月的下滑程度超越預期,比10月減少逾90億美元至30955.91億美元。

人民銀行公布,上月外匯儲備約30955.91億美元,按月減少95.7億美元,期內黃金儲備6264萬盎司,連續兩個月持平。

國家外匯管理局發言人王春英說,11月中國外匯市場供求,保持基本平衡,外匯儲備規模變化,受匯率折算和資產價格變化等影響。受全球經濟增長、貨幣政策預期、貿易局勢等因素影響,美元指數小幅上漲,主要國家債券價格有所下跌。匯率折算和資產價格變化等估值因素,是影響當月外匯儲備規模變化的主要原因。

 

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