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Kristal每週回顧|2019年8月12日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

面消息

  • 金價靠穩在1500美元水平,本周累升逾4%
  • 債券經歷了自2011 美國評級下調後的最大幅回升

面消息

  • 氣候變化危及全球食品供應
  • 香港政治示威加劇經濟下滑

現在,了解更多細節

 

1.金價靠穩在1500美元水平,本周累升逾4%

全球央行貨幣政策偏向寬鬆、中美貿易戰升級以及全球國債收益率下跌,利好金價表現。金價靠穩在1500美元水平,是六年内的最高点,较上周增长4.3个百分点。

業內人士認為,市場對不確定性擔憂升溫,加上以美聯儲為代表的全球央行接連降息,讓金價表現強勢。業界分析預計,隨著避險情緒和貨幣等因素的持續發酵,金市短期或仍繼續上漲。目前,黃金市場投資者大多繼續看漲後市,全球最大的黃金ETF基金SPDR到9日持有的黃金量接近840噸。

金價本周累升逾4%,創3年多以來最大一周升幅。

推薦閱讀:

https://www.ft.com/content/6b274052-bac6-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203

 

2.全球債券負息率創新高至13.2萬美元

全球債券孳息率反彈,投資者亦在消化好於預期的中國貿易數據,周四美股上漲,抹去本周早些時候大部分跌幅。標誌性的10年期國庫債券孳息率在1.72%,周三該指標曾降至1.6% 以下低位。全球債券孳息率亦都有所回升。

iShares iBoxx投資等級公司債券ETF (iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF,代號為LQD.US)6日跳漲0.62%、收125.99美元,創歷史收盤高;年初迄今漲幅已達11.67%。

人口日益老化、儲蓄風潮漸盛,讓債市深具吸引力。貿易戰陰影籠罩,再加上全球成長低迷、市場波動偏高,促使投資人湧進債券。

推薦閱讀:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/bond-etf-extends-steepest-rally-since-2011-u-s-credit-downgrade

 

3.氣候變化危及全球食品供應

聯合國跨政府氣候變化委員會(IPCC)上周四發表新一份報告指出,假如不對耕種方法和人類飲食方式進行大刀闊斧的改造,氣候變化所導致的極端天氣、食水短缺和土壤侵蝕,將威脅到全球糧食供應的穩定性,甚至全球飢荒。

聯合國政府間氣候小組日前剛發布一份關於土地利用和氣候變化的報告,該報告警告說,如果人們不加緊遏制導致氣候變暖的溫室氣體排放,整個地球可能面臨全球糧食短缺。

另外,歐洲聯盟對抗氣候變遷迫在眉睫,將限制使用棕櫚油所製成的生質燃料,而受到影響的印尼及馬來西亞棕櫚油產業今年開始回擊,讓這場環保貿易戰煙哨味愈來愈濃。

推薦閱讀:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-08/farmers-tree-cutters-also-add-to-climate-change-report-says

4.香港示威加劇,經濟下滑

香港經濟情況正處於外憂內患,外有中美貿易戰影響,因此較沙士及金融風暴嚴峻,相信未來經濟繼續下行快要漫長時間復原。

示威轉趨具衝突性,七月訪港旅客量按年跌幅由1.5%不斷擴大至七月底的26%,八月首周更按年暴跌逾3成。零售業則連跌第5個月,今年6月的零售業總銷貨價值按年下跌6.7%,遠遜市場預期下跌1.9%,更是撇除2月農曆新年因素外,自2016年8月以來單月最大跌幅。

推薦閱讀:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/hong-kong-protest-fallout-widens-as-cathay-takes-hit-to-bookings?cmpid=BBD080819_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=190808&utm_campaign=marketsasia

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