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Kristal每週回顧|2019年8月19日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

面消息

  • 美國7月零售銷售增長強勁
  • 美國晶片商Nvidia上季業績勝預期,股價升逾7%

面消息

  • 經濟形勢惡化 阿根廷信用評級遭下調
  • 全球經濟閃紅燈

現在,了解更多細節

 

1.美國7月零售銷售數據強勁

美國7月零售銷售數據強勁,按月增加0.7%,遠勝預期及6月修正後數字的0.3%。其中,網購、雜貨、衣物、電子產品等全綫錄得增長,反映消費者信心未受貿易戰等不明朗因素太大影響。

美國零售銷售額錄得連續第五個月的增長,主要受惠於就業仍然理想和工資錄得溫和增長,以及消費者仍樂意購物。對於美國來說這是個好數據,其因發動中美貿易戰,威脅向中國入口的消費品加徵關稅,而令全球增長前景轉差。美國經濟在次季仍然錄得擴張,最大的幕後功臣便是佔經濟產值最大部分的個人消費。

美國7月零售銷售增幅為四個月來最大,優於預期,顯示消費者支出持續支撐景氣擴張,網購支出勁增是一大驅動力,抵銷汽車買氣下滑影響 。

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US retail sales rose solidly in July in a sign of consumer optimism

 

2.美國晶片商Nvidia上季業績勝預期,股價升逾7%

美國晶片商Nvidia公布,截至7月28日止第二季,每股經調整盈利為1.24美元,優於分析員預期平均值1.15美元;收入按年跌17%至25.8億美元,優於分析員預期平均值25.4億美元。

Nvidia盤後大漲7% ,營收獲利皆超出預期。

儘管過去幾季,Nvidia 業績受到供應問題影響,不過對於今年下半年將樂觀看待,因看好任天堂 Switch 對於 Nvidia 晶片需求,同時,任天堂推出的 Nintendo Switch Lite 及升級版 Nintendo Switch 新主機將帶來提振效果。

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Nvidia jumps on earnings beat

 

3.經濟形勢惡化 阿根廷信用評級遭下調

兩家國際評級機構8月16日宣布下調阿根廷的主權債務信用評級,理由是執政黨在總統大選初選中受挫,導致阿根廷經濟形勢預期顯著惡化。惠譽把阿根廷的評級從B下調至CCC,反映了該國宏觀經濟惡化的預期以及發生債務違約的風險上升。隨後在美股收盤后,標準普爾評級公司也發佈消息稱,鑒於市場動蕩削弱了阿根廷的償付能力,決定把該國的長期評級從B下調至B-,評級展望為負面。

評級機構標普降低阿根廷主權信貸評級,由B降至B-,另一間評級機構惠譽也降低阿根廷的信貸評級,由B降至CCC,反映了總統初選後政策的不確定性增加,融資條件嚴重收緊,宏觀經濟環境預期惡化。

阿根廷日前舉行的總統初選結果顯示,左翼候選人Alberto Fernandez領先現任總統馬克里(Mauricio Macri),而前者很可能在10月第二輪總統投票時勝出,後果很可能是當地的經濟改革將無疾而終,令其經濟問題惡化。消息曝光後,當地股市與貨幣滙價急挫。

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Argentina Slammed by Double Downgrade at End of Traumatic Week

 

4.全球經濟閃紅燈

全球經濟數據疲弱、通膨低迷、以及貿易問題和地緣政治風險等,再加上對各國央行降息的預期,使得債券殖利率大幅走低。

全球經濟衰退紅燈再現,美國國債殖利率延續跌勢,10年期國債殖利率最低跌至1.514%,30年期國債殖利跌破2%,最低下探至1.942%,顯示投資人對於美國未來經濟的悲觀預期。

種種指標均顯示目前全球經濟面臨較大衰退風險,進入2019年,多達20多個國家紛紛降息,目前聯準會(Fed)9月降息機率高達100%,9月12日歐洲央行會議降息的機率日前也升至100%。

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Swagger Seeping Out of Stocks as Bond Market Signals Get Louder

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