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Kristal每週回顧|2019年8月26日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

面消息

  • 中美貿易戰升溫,台灣成受惠國
  • 美國與日本「原則上」談妥雙邊貿易協定

面消息

  • 貿易戰升級,道指重挫623點
  • 香港的示威活動可能引發經濟衰退

現在,了解更多細節

 

1.中美貿易戰升溫,台灣成受惠國

台灣財政部的統計顯示,2019年上半年,美國從中國進口與去年同期相比下降2.56個百分點,但從墨西哥、越南和台灣的進口則分別增加0.82,0.61和0.35個百分點。為了協助受美中貿易戰影響的台商,台灣政府今年推動歡迎台商回台投資方案,據台灣經濟部最新資訊,截至目前,已有118家廠商響應台商回台2.0方案,總金額逾新台幣5637億元,可望在台灣創造4萬8906個就業機會。

全球經濟疲軟及美中貿易戰前景未明,將繼續影響企業投資及消費信心,不過下半年傳產將迎來旺季,且5G建設、人工智慧(AI)及物聯網等發展,仍可期待推動台灣製造業發展。

推薦閱讀:

Taiwan Factories Reap Rewards of U.S.-China Trade War

2.美國與日本「原則上」談妥雙邊貿易協定

中美貿易戰升級之際,美國和日本原則上達成貿易協議框架共識,有望下月於美國紐約簽署協議。日本同意購買美國飼料用粟米,但華府不會撤銷進口日產汽車的關稅。分析指出,雙邊貿易談判通常需時數年,但美日僅以1年時間便達成共識,形容情況十分罕見。

美國和日本領袖在七國集團(G7)峰會期間舉行貿易談判,其後召開聯合記者會,宣布雙方原則上同意美日貿易協議,希望在下月紐約聯合國大會期間簽署。

美國農民因中美貿易戰持續,對華出口大減,故特朗普要求日本增購美國農產品。日本經濟再生大臣茂木敏充稱,美日在農產品、工業品和數碼經濟的3個領域,達成共識。

推薦閱讀:

U.S., Japan Reach Agreement on Trade Deal Framework, Reports Say

3.貿易戰升級道指重挫623點

上周五中國宣布向750億美元美國進口商品加徵關稅,美國總統特朗普隨即反擊,對5500億美元中國貨調高5%關稅。道指在上周五因而大跌623點,拖累恒指夜期大低水699點。

國務院宣布分兩批對總值750億美元美國商品加徵5%至25%關稅,特朗普揚言會提高現有關稅稅率,更下令所有美國企業撤離中國,消息拖累道指及港股夜期雙雙跌逾600點。

特朗普強調,中國及很多國家多年來在貿易上佔美國便宜,致使美國損失大量金錢,而且看不到盡頭。他批評歷屆美國政府並無採取措施,使美國納稅人負擔沉重。特朗普指自己作為美國總統,不能再讓此繼續下去。他又指出,中國昨日不應向美國加徵關稅。

推薦閱讀:

How the U.S.-China Trade War Got to This Point

 

4.哈佛學者警告:港示威活動或引發全球經濟衰退

本身為哈佛大學經濟學家的萊因哈特認為,本港逾兩個月政局動盪的影響,不止波及中國及亞洲地區經濟,預料會引致全球經濟放緩,甚至觸發衰退的其中一個轉捩點。她又指出,中美貿易戰沒完沒了,加上中國經濟放緩,本港的經濟增長將持續受壓。

因港府修訂《逃犯條例》而引發的一連串抗爭運動,已經持續兩個多月,加上中美貿易戰及環球經濟放緩,已令政府將香港今年全年經濟增長,由原先估計的2%至3%,下調至0%至1%。

其後多間大行亦先後下調今年香港經濟預測,其中花旗看法最淡,預料今年第三季經濟倒退1.5%,全年收縮0.3%,為首家預料經濟會收縮的大行。今次修例風波,更有演變成全球經濟的「黑天鵝」事件,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)前副總裁、哈佛大學經濟學家Carmen Reinhart接受《彭博》訪問時指,香港持續不斷的政治風波,或成為全球經濟轉捩點。香港政局不穩對中國及亞洲經濟增長的影響並不局限於地區,而是全球性影響,強調事件可成為觸發全球經濟大幅放緩,甚至陷入衰退。

推薦閱讀:

Harvard Economist Warns Hong Kong Could Trigger World Recession

 

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