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Kristal每週回顧|2019年9月16日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的4件大事。

  • 美債10年債殖利率上週漲幅創6年高
  • 美股三大指數持續做好
  • 港股消息利淡,無阻港股回升
  • 美國若實施負利率或有機會引起金融泡沫

現在,了解更多細節

1. 美債10年債殖利率週漲幅創6年高

跡象顯示美國消費者支出仍強勁、中美貿易的緊張關係有望趨緩,帶動歐美公債價格在上週五重挫、殖利率大漲。10 年期美國國債殖利率升至 1.84%,而 30 年期國債殖利率週五 (13 日) 亦升至 2.31%。本週 10 年期殖利率的漲幅達 30 多個基點,這是 2016 年 11 月以來的最大漲幅。

近期市場風險情緒好轉,激勵股市上揚,美國探究市場風險情緒好轉原因,除了美國經濟數據表現大致符合預期,主要還是來自對中美貿易重啟談判的樂觀期待。由於大陸對貿易談判目標及底線十分明確,只要美國態度明朗化,就比較容易有結果。

2. 美股三大指數持續做好

美股三大指數持續做好,全周道指升1.58% 納指升0.91% 標指升0.96%。中美貿易談判屢現曙光,中方表示,由本月17日起至翌年9月16日,不再為反制美301措施而向首批美國商品加徵關稅;而美國總統特朗普亦同意押後向2500億美元中國貨加徵關稅,消息帶動中美股市轉強;加上特朗普上周在Twitter再次呼籲聯儲局大幅減息,認為聯邦基金基準利率應該降至「零或以下」,在市場憧憬聯儲局減息的氣氛高漲下,美股更連日做好,道指重返27000點水平,離今年高位27359點愈來愈近。標準普爾500指數結束三連升, 上日收報3007點, 微跌2點, 跌幅百分之0.07, 較歷史高位相差不到百分之1; 主要因為蘋果公司股價下跌, 抵銷了中美貿易緊張局勢降溫的影響。

美股三大主要指數上周五收市個別發展, 但就錄得連續三個星期上升。

3. 港股消息利淡,無阻回升

雖然香港本地局勢暫未見平息迹象,但港股已連續兩個星期反彈。上周五正值中秋佳節,A股休市,港股交投亦較為淡靜,不過仍然升265點,收報27352點。港股近日可謂「柳暗花明」,多重利好消息刺激大市由谷底開始出現絕地反彈,自踏入9月,上周五收市價計,恒指已累升1628點,重上失守一個多月的27000水平之外,更收復50天線;但有感投資者仍然對港股未完全回復信心,一日升一日跌的情况相信會持一段時間。

中美貿易關係緩和,中美談判見曙光,港股上周延續升勢,恒指全周升661點或2.5%。

4. 美國若實施負利率或有機會引起金融泡沫

下週美國聯邦儲備局召開議息會議,市場預期減息機會極高。另一邊廂,本週歐洲中央銀行率先減息重啟量化寬鬆政策(QE)。內地方面中國人民銀行已於上週五宣布下調存款準備金率,料釋放9,000億元人民幣資金,投資者更憧憬人行下一步將加入減息行列。

美國聯儲局將會在星期二, 展開為期兩日的議息會議,結果會在本港時間星期四凌晨公布。美國經濟表現雖相對穩健,但美國貿易政策不確定性已衝擊企業信心,市場普遍預期,今次聯儲局會宣布減息四分一厘,將聯邦基金利率下調到1.75至兩厘曾經多次批評聯儲局政策的總統特朗普,呼籲聯儲局將利率降至零,甚至負利率,讓美國可以為債務再融資,大幅降低利息成本。《華爾街日報》引述經濟學者指出, 將利率降至接近零水平, 顯示聯儲局官員預期經濟將會陷入更嚴重下滑, 將會重挫市場對經濟前景的信心, 帶來意料之外的效果。

 

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