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Kristal每週回顧|2019年9月30日

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只有 5分鐘時間? Kristal A.I 為你簡短回顧上週全球經濟與金融市場的5件大事。

  • 華為預料來年5G基站產量將倍增
  • 日漲消費稅 經濟衰退風險增
  • 特朗普擬將中企踢出美國股市
  • 聯儲局決定減息四分一厘,合乎市場預期
  • 美國政局動盪影響 香港股市收低

1.華為預料來年5G基站產量將倍增

美國給予美企出貨華為的豁免期將在11月19日屆滿,一般預料,若美中談判在11月19日前無重大進展,美方將不會延長美企出貨華為豁免期限。目前,美國禁令並未放寬華為。華為最新推出的Mate 30系列並未有內置Google。

華為總裁任正非表示,脫離美國零組件的華為,還是可以生存的,華為已具備生產不包含美國零件的第五代行動通訊(5G)基地台的能力,明年將擴大產量,到明年年底,該公司將生產約150萬個基站。華為近年可算是5G研發的領導企業之一,目前已在全球交付了超過20萬個啟用5G的基站。

2.日漲消費稅 經濟衰退風險增

日本政府10月1日起將調高消費稅率,從現行8%調升到10%,藉此增加國庫儲備。不過經濟學家擔心增稅將使經濟衰退風險提高,一些零售與餐飲業者為維持購買風氣,已事先調降產品的稅前售價,卻可能迫使各方業者加入苦痛的價格戰。

日本10月1日消費稅率將從現行8%調升到10%,零售與餐飲業者事先調降產品的稅前售價。

一些零售與餐飲服務業者為避免流失消費者,已提前降價,自行吸收增稅成本,例如無印良品(Muji)9月中起在店內張貼海報宣傳「10月1日後不調整價格」;在全日本營運約1,000家藥妝店的Cosmos也讓藥品、日常用品等商品維持原售價。經濟學家普遍認為,日本經濟正失去動能,衰退風險模型已閃爍初期警訊,調升消費稅率可能衝擊第4季經濟,但預期其後經濟會迅速回升,避開衰退。

3.特朗普擬將中企踢出美國股市

上週五(9月27日),美媒透露特朗普和政府正在考慮將所有中國公司從美國股市除名,以限制美國基金對中國的投資。消息傳出後,阿里巴巴等在美國上市的中企股價暴跌,人民幣兌美元匯率也跌至7.15。

根據匿名知情人士消息稱,美國政府官員正在討論限制美國資金投資中國的方式,特朗普已為這項議題開了綠燈。白宮意在阻止美國所有對中國的投資,目的是保護美國投資者免受由於中企缺乏監管帶來的風險。但目前討論仍在初步階段,還沒有具體實施的時間表。消息傳出後,阿里巴巴股價下跌了5%,百度和京東也同時下跌。這幾家中企巨頭都在美國納斯達克交易所上市。

4.美股第三季變動微 第四季料大幅波動

美國股市上周收市偏軟。有分析指出,美國股市第三季累計看來變動不大,但展望第四季,大市可能大幅波動。

回顧上周美國股市表現,標準普爾500指數下滑1%。第三季至今,標指仍微升0.7%。如果周一沒有太大變化,標指可望以輕微上升結束第三季。回顧第三季,標指以2752點起步,期內最高見3028點,其後回落至2860點,並維持窄幅徘徊格局。分析員相信,美國股市第四季可能有較大幅波動,主要是受到民主黨或彈劾總統特朗普的問題困擾。根據前總統克林頓的彈劾事件作為參考,股市表現可能較佳。當年,克林頓彈劾調查開始後,美股仍升2.8%。

5.美國政局動盪影響 香港股市收低

承接美股跌勢, 加上內地上月規模以上工業企業利潤下跌, 港股於期結結算日反覆低收。恒指低開63點, 最多超過200點, 低見25840點, 是9月4日以來低位。內地股市造好, 一度帶動大市跌幅縮窄, 但兩萬六關口仍未能守穩。恒指收報25954點, 跌87點. 成交縮減至531億元。

總結上星期全周, 恒指跌480點; 連跌兩星期。國企指數收報10148點, 跌63點。 恒指年初至今僅升0.42%,近乎原地踏步,表現遜於全球主要股市。期內美股標普500指數累升18.8%,反映科技股表現的納斯達克指數更升逾21%。中國股市方面,A股回報亦遠勝港股,滬深300指數年初至今累升近28%,可見港股年內表現不濟。

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