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Kristal每週總結| 2019年5月27日

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只有15秒?這是你需要知道的。

以下是上週發生的重大全球事件的簡要總結。

 

正面

  1. 美國製造業數據疲軟後黃金價格持穩
  2. 儘管經濟放緩,美國每週申請失業救濟人數下降
  3. 新加坡經濟增長3.8%,高於預期的2.3%

 

反面

  1. 特蕾莎·梅辭去英國首相職務
  2. 美國製造業增長率為2009年9月以來的最低水平
  3. 德意志銀行股價創歷史新低

 

正面

  1. 由於美國製造業數據疲軟,黃金價格持穩

你應該知道什麼

由於美元疲軟以及美國降息預期抵消了股市反彈的壓力,黃金在周五上漲超過1%之後上週穩定上漲。現貨黃金上漲0.1%至每盎司1,283.91美元。較低的利率傾向於支持黃金,因為它降低了持有非收益資產的機會成本。

你應該注意什麼

中東地區的不確定性也支撐了黃金價格。特朗普表示,作為一項保護措施,他將向中東派遣大約1,500名美軍。疲軟的美國耐用品數據和製造業活動數據支撐了黃金價格,這增加了對中國貿易衝突可能傷害世界最大經濟體的擔憂。

 

2. 儘管經濟放緩,美國每週申請失業救濟人數下降

你應該知道什麼

截至5月18日當週,首次申請失業救濟人數減少1,000人,調整為211,000人,而預期為215,000人。索賠現已連續三週下降。這表明即使經濟放緩,勞動力市場仍將保持強勁勢頭。

你應該注意什麼

工廠的零售銷售和生產在4月份下降,而住房市場基本保持穩定。第二季度GDP仍低於2%,而第一季度經濟增長率為3.2%。上周初始索賠的四周移動平均值下降了4,750至220,250。

 

3.新加坡經濟增長3.8%,高於預期的2.3%

你應該知道什麼

第一季度新加坡經濟增長速度超過政府此前的預期,表明新加坡經濟對全球需求疲軟和美中貿易戰的惡化具有彈性。國內生產總值比上一季度增長3.8%,高於政府此前預測的2%和高於預期的2.3%。與一年前相比,GDP增長1.2%。

 

你應該注意什麼

政府已將2019年的增長預測範圍縮小至1.5%至2.5%。出口受到全球科技週期下滑和中國經濟增長放緩的打擊。由於電子出口收縮16.3%,4月非石油運輸量較去年下降10%。

 

反面

  1. 特里薩梅辭去了英國首相的職務

你應該知道什麼

特蕾莎·梅於6月7日辭去總理一職,標誌著她三年的旅程即將結束。特蕾莎梅說,她已竭盡所能說服國會議員支持她與歐盟談判達成的脫歐協議。

你應該注意什麼

在5月份的聲明之後英鎊上漲0.5%,攀升至1.27美元上方,隨後因投資者消化消息而放棄漲幅。由於沒有英國脫歐退出協議,英國現在似乎更有可能從歐盟以無序方式離開。英國的歐盟官方出發日期定於10月31日。

 

2.美國製造業增長率為2009年9月以來的最低水平

你應該知道什麼

5月份美國製造業增長創下多年新低,衡量其近十年來最弱的活動速度,隨著美中貿易戰愈演愈烈,新訂單自2009年9月以來首次下降。 5月美國製造業採購經理人指數從4月的52.6降至50.6,為2009年9月以來的最低水平,而預測為52.5。

你應該注意什麼

製造業的疲軟與服務業相似,Markit的閃存服務業務活動指數從4月份的53.0降至5月份的50.9,為2016年2月以來的最低水平。貿易戰仍然是製造商關注的首要問題,同時出現較慢的跡象國內和主要出口市場的銷售和經濟增長都在減弱。

 

3. 德意志銀行股價創歷史新低

你應該知道什麼

在瑞銀將該股評級從“中性”下調至“賣出”評級後,德意志銀行週一創下6.37歐元的歷史新低,下跌近3%。瑞銀將德意志的目標價從7.80歐元下調至5.70歐元,稱德意志銀行仍然是一個受到外部事件影響的槓桿市場,而目前的利率上升是一個遙遠的希望。

你應該注意什麼

在與德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)合併談判破裂後,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)也面臨投資者要求削減其IB部門的壓力。德意志銀行在過去幾年面臨著各種負面消息,例如與美國司法部的和解,管理層改組,收益疲軟,不斷重組,合併投機和股價暴跌。

 

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