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The key event in September will yet again be the FOMC Rate decision that is due on September 18th as well as the twitter account of @realDonaldTrump.
The Fed Fund Futures and Eurodollar market are currently indicating a 99.5% probability of another 25bp cut, and a 0.5% chance of a 50bp cut. Our outlook is conditional on other leading indicators, especially the US ISM Index (4th Sept) and the Employment report (6th Sept) which may or may not confirm the slowdown in economic activity in the US economy.
Our view is that the US economy is in late or even end of the expansion cycle, with a couple of other major economies already in flat to negative growth territory. (Germany and the eternal laggard Japan)
We maintain our view of staying conservative in the current environment and to target a 50:50 portfolio allocation between bonds and equity and also to add Gold to a portfolio on dips.
The materials and data contained herein are for information only and shall in no event be construed as an offer to purchase or sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities in any jurisdiction. Kristal Advisors does not make any representation, undertaking, warranty or guarantee as to the update, completeness, correctness, reliability or accuracy of the materials and data herein. All opinions, forecasts or estimation expressed herein are subject to change without prior notice. Kristal Advisors and its affiliates accept no liability or responsibility whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss and/or damages arising out of or in relation to any use of opinions, forecasts, materials and data contained herein or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
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