March continued to be a tough month for investors as the world struggled to grasp the impact of a prolonged Ukraine war. The resistance of the local forces has been formidable and the aid from the West has been swift - but on the ground, the forces are still vastly unmatched against Russia.
A diplomatic solution is unlikely anytime soon, as acknowledged by both sides during the peace talks in Turkey. Ukraine's sticking to its red lines of not ceding any territory and Russia appears to want to prolong the invasion despite significant resistance (domestic and international) and high economic & military costs.
The gyrations of the US yield curve have also been interesting to watch in recent weeks. After lying dormant for most of the last decade with interest rates at the zero lower bound, yields are now gathering momentum as we approach FOMC meetings in May and June. Global yields rose significantly once again in March, with the US 10Y adding another 50 bps and the Australia 10Y another 70 bps.
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April 23, 2022
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