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Risk sentiment intact

Risk sentiment intact

Headline this week:

SPX continued the push to record highs despite the Fed commencing tightening, closing just shy of the 4700 level last week. The US economy added 531k jobs in Oct (more than the 450k expected) and Sep's tally was also revised higher to 312k from the 194k declared earlier. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% from 4.8% prior and the labour market gains seem to be holding in the face of the taper. In the hour following the release of the data on Friday though, we saw a big move lower in US Treasury yields with the 10Y falling close to 8 bps to the 1.45% level. The curve got flatter too with the 2Y at 40 bps and the 30Y moving lower to 1.89%. Inflation break-evens were broadly stable with 5Y at 2.9% and 10Y at 2.55%.

Market Updates:

The US House passed the USD 550 bn bipartisan infra bill late on Friday, which is now only pending Biden's signature. The internal rifts within the Democrats was highly criticized after the loss of the Virginia Governor seat and majority in the State Legislatures last week. Despite a high turnout, the Republicans took the historically blue state which Biden had won by 10 percentage points in 2020. While the passage of the infra bill is positive for the broad economy, the proposed USD 1.5 tn budget bill (watered down from USD 4 bn earlier) is still in the negotiation phase between the party's left and moderate factions.Crypto has stayed within broad ranges and Gold managed to break above the 1800 level once again. Crude supply has started taking a political angle once again with the OPEC+ resisting Biden's calls to boost production. We have a fairly quiet week data-wise ahead, where UK's Q3 GDP on Thursday will be headlining. China will have their annual party plenum during the week, the last one before Xi Jingping likely takes on an unprecedented third term as President next year.

By

Kristal Advisors

November 8, 2021

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